The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center has released its latest 8-14 day outlook, covering October 14-20, 2025, and the forecast paints a picture of predominantly warm temperatures across the U.S., with a varied precipitation outlook. Issued on October 6th, 2025, this probabilistic forecast highlights significant regional differences that could impact planning for the mid-October period.
Temperature Outlook: A Warm Sweep with a Cool Exception (Valid October 14-20, 2025)
- Southeast (Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Florida): Likely to very likely (60-100% probability) above-normal temperatures, with 80-100% odds in central Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley.
- Midwest (Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Kentucky): Likely to very likely (60-100% probability) above-normal temperatures.
- Northeast (New York, Pennsylvania, New England): Likely to very likely (60-100% probability) above-normal temperatures.
- Great Plains (Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska): Likely to very likely (60-100% probability) above-normal temperatures.
- Southwest (Arizona, New Mexico): Likely to very likely (60-100% probability) above-normal temperatures.
- Pacific Northwest (Western Washington, Northern Idaho, Western Montana): Likely (60-70% probability) below-normal temperatures.
- West (California, Nevada, Utah): Near-normal temperatures.
- Northern Rockies and Northern Plains (North Dakota, Minnesota): Near-normal temperatures.
- Alaska: Above-normal temperatures, especially in the interior and southcentral regions.
- Hawaii: Above-normal temperatures across all islands.
Precipitation Outlook: Dry South, Wet West (Valid October 14-20, 2025)
- Lower Mississippi Valley (Mississippi, Louisiana, Arkansas) and Eastern Texas: Likely to very likely (60-100% probability) below-normal precipitation, with 70-90% odds in core areas.
- Southwest (Arizona, New Mexico): Likely (60-70% probability) above-normal precipitation.
- Northern Rockies (Montana, Wyoming): Likely (60-70% probability) above-normal precipitation.
- Northern Plains (North Dakota, South Dakota): Likely (60-70% probability) above-normal precipitation.
- Pacific Northwest (Oregon, Washington): Likely (60-70% probability) above-normal precipitation.
- Northeast: Near-normal precipitation.
- Midwest (Wisconsin, Michigan): Near-normal precipitation.
- Southeast (Carolinas, Georgia, Florida): Near-normal precipitation.
- California: Near-normal precipitation.
- Alaska: Widespread above-normal precipitation (50-70% in most areas).
- Hawaii: Above-normal precipitation across all islands.
What It Means for You
With mid-October approaching, this forecast offers critical insights. Residents in the warm zones, especially the Southeast and Midwest, should prepare for potential heat-related impacts, while those in the Pacific Northwest might need to brace for cooler weather. The dry South could see increased drought stress, particularly in agriculture, whereas the wetter West and Alaska may benefit from moisture relief. Stay tuned for updates as the period nears, and check local NOAA resources for detailed planning.
