The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), has reported that there is a better than 50 percent chance that El Niño conditions will develop sometime between July and September. However, most forecasters believe that if a El Niño event does occur it is more likely to be on the weak-to-moderate end of the spectrum.
Tony Barnston, chief forecaster for the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, says that “The southern tier of U.S. states tends to have above-normal precipitation during winter when there is an El Niño. So this would be helpful for the droughts currently lingering in Texas/New Mexico, and Georgia/Alabama,” he said in an email conversation. “It would not help the ones in Kentucky/Indiana though, and could cause a new one in the northern Rockies.” climatecentral.org
