A Mild Week for Tahoe

A Mild Week for Tahoe

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A Mild Week for Tahoe

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The cold snow showery pattern from the weekend is coming to an end after dropping some light dustings.  The frustrating dismal Winter pattern continues as we watch our neighbors to the North in the Cascades continue to get dumped on.

It is going to get mild this week with temperatures possibly breaking 50 at lake level Wednesday-Friday and 40’s on the mountains.  The snow is going to be nice and soft all week with maybe a little corn snow cycle.

We will be seeing a pattern shift in the Pacific by the weekend with the ridge moving North towards the Gulf of Alaska. A cold trough will be dropping down the West Coast next weekend which will drop our temperatures back into the 20’s and 30’s by Sunday. We could see some light snow with the cold front pushing through.

What looks certain for next week is that we will be in a different and colder pattern.  What is also starting to look likely is that the ridge will want to be out in the Pacific North of Hawaii instead of off the coast which would open the storm door.   What is not certain yet is what type of storms we will try to make their way in, but if they do they should be cold storms.  It’s too early to rely on the operational forecast models but they are showing the trough sticking around next week and increasing chances for storms as we move through the week.

It’s not surprising that the forecast models are starting to hint at a pattern change as the teleconnection forecasts point towards one. We have not seen the MJO progress into phases 1,2,3 in the Indian Ocean yet this Winter. The current forecast continues to show this.

The composites show increased chances of above normal precip for CA in these phases in February and March.

These images can all be found free on our favorite taxes financed weather site nws.noaa.gov.  The PNA forecast is also negative which could setup a pattern of troughing in the West and ridging in the East  with storms coming further South into CA.

Every time the PNA has gone negative this Winter the storm track has dropped into CA.  We had several storms in November and then the big storms the third week of January.  The forecast is for the PNA to go negative next week which would also help our chances of getting some storms into CA.  The strange thing so far with this Winter is that the PNA is usually spends a lot more time in the negative phase during a La Nina season.

So now we just wait and see what happens.  This has been a frustrating Winter so far and we have been grasping at straws everytime something slightly positive shows up in the pattern.  The signs we see this week for the next few weeks are the best we have seen since the week or two before the big snows in January.  This actually looks a little better to me even though we aren’t sure if we will get big storms if this pattern settles in, because it should last more than just a few days if it does.

We have a La Nina that is starting to fade just like we did last year in March and April and we know how that turned out.  Some of you have given up on Winter and the rest of you are probably like me and won’t believe the big snows will come until we are getting mouth fulls of powder.  But there are still 3 more months of Winter in a Tahoe season and we have seen stranger things than Winter showing up in March.  I like to live life thinking positive so I’ll be searching out any signs of snow until it’s time to break out the inner tube and beer float.  BA

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