Winter 2026-2027 turns the last two seasons on their head. A strong El Niño is forecast to drive a wet, active southern storm track while the northern tier gets its cold in short bursts, which means the states that did well last year are not the ones to watch now. Here is the state-by-state picture, built on the Farmers’ Almanac 2026-2027 forecast with NOAA’s September outlook and Direct Weather’s snowfall map as a cross-check.
The driver this winter is El Niño, and a strong one. NOAA now puts the odds of a very strong event through the heart of winter above 90%, and gives a 69% chance that the October to December period finishes at or above +2.5°C on the relative Niño index, which would put it ahead of every El Niño in the record back to 1950. In practice that means a loaded southern storm track, a wetter south and southeast, and a northern tier that gets its cold in sharp bursts rather than long settled freezes. More on the ENSO upgrade here.
How To Read These
Each state is graded against its own normal, not against every other state. Above average means snowier than usual, average means close to a typical season, below average means less snow than usual, and minimal means snow is unlikely at all. A below average year in the Sierra still buries an above average year in Tennessee.
State-By-State Snowfall Outlook
- Alabama: Below – Wet under the El Niño track, but almost always too warm for snow.
- Alaska: Average – Coastal storms keep coming; the interior runs closer to its normal.
- Arizona: Above – One of the clearest winners. Above normal precipitation and real snow in the high country.
- Arkansas: Below – Frequent storms, mostly rain, with an ice risk on the cold side of them.
- California: Above – The Sierra Nevada is the highest-confidence call on the map. Watch snow levels at the base.
- Colorado: Above – The southern Rockies are flagged to fare especially well for mountain snowfall.
- Connecticut: Average – Coastal, so more rain and mix than the interior gets.
- Delaware: Average – Mid-Atlantic. Wet, with a thin margin between rain, sleet and snow.
- Florida: Minimal – Wet and stormy, with unusual cold snaps, but snow stays a novelty.
- Georgia: Below – Cool, wet and stormy. Ice is the realistic wintry threat, not snow.
- Hawaii: Minimal – Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa only.
- Idaho: Below – Warmer and drier than normal is the call for the northern Rockies.
- Illinois: Average – Clippers and squalls rather than big synoptic snowstorms.
- Indiana: Average – Fast-moving systems with brief accumulations.
- Iowa: Average – Thaw-freeze cycles in and out of cold snaps.
- Kansas: Average – Near the northern edge of the southern storm track. Ice as likely as snow.
- Kentucky: Below – On the warm, wet side of most systems.
- Louisiana: Minimal – Wettest-pattern flooding risk, not a snow risk.
- Maine: Above – Interior and higher ground in line for several rounds of heavy, wet snow.
- Maryland: Average – Wet, with storm tracks deciding the precipitation type each time.
- Massachusetts: Average – Coastal rain and mix; the Berkshires do better.
- Michigan: Above – Lake effect off Lake Michigan and Lake Superior keeps the Upper Peninsula busy.
- Minnesota: Average – Cold comes in bursts; the seasonal precipitation signal is not strong.
- Mississippi: Below – Active and wet, but warm.
- Missouri: Average – Between the two tracks, so mixed precipitation events are likely.
- Montana: Below – Below normal precipitation odds and a quieter storm track this winter.
- Nebraska: Average – Clippers and blowing snow rather than deep accumulation.
- Nevada: Average – Wetter deserts but mild; the Tahoe side does better than the rest.
- New Hampshire: Above – Interior New England is the strongest snow signal in the Northeast.
- New Jersey: Average – Coastal storms, with the rain-snow line the whole story.
- New Mexico: Above – Southern Rockies snowfall is one of the better bets of the season.
- New York: Above – Tug Hill, the Adirondacks and the interior all favoured.
- North Carolina: Average – Wet and stormy, with the mountains picking up the frozen share.
- North Dakota: Average – Arctic outbreaks and squalls, near normal overall.
- Ohio: Average – Snowbelt bursts around Cleveland against a drier seasonal signal.
- Oklahoma: Below – Ice is the headline risk at Oklahoma City and Tulsa, not snow.
- Oregon: Below – Milder stretches mean valley rain and a less dependable Cascade snowpack.
- Pennsylvania: Above – The Appalachian spine and the northwest snowbelt both do well.
- Rhode Island: Average – Coastal. Mix and rain more often than snow.
- South Carolina: Below – Wet, stormy, and rarely cold enough.
- South Dakota: Average – Sudden squalls, near normal season totals.
- Tennessee: Average – Northern counties see sleet and freezing rain when cold surges arrive.
- Texas: Below – Directly in the El Niño corridor: wet, with ice risk in the north.
- Utah: Average – Southern Utah favoured, the northern Wasatch less certain.
- Vermont: Above – Several rounds of heavy, wet snow expected in January and February.
- Virginia: Average – Wet, with the mountains taking the snow share.
- Washington: Below – Warmer and drier than normal is the call for the Northwest.
- West Virginia: Above – High Appalachian terrain on the cold edge of a wet track.
- Wisconsin: Average – Lake effect helps the east; the rest runs near normal.
- Wyoming: Average – Between the quiet north and the favoured southern Rockies.
The Tally
That works out at 11 states leaning above average, 24 close to normal, 12 below average and 3 where snow is unlikely in any meaningful amount. The weight has shifted south and east compared with last winter, when the northern tier held most of the above average calls.
Where The Forecasts Disagree
The Great Lakes are the main argument. The Almanac expects lake effect to keep the snowbelts busy, while NOAA’s seasonal map leans drier across the region. Both can hold: lake effect is driven by cold air crossing open water, which a seasonal precipitation map does not capture well. The other watch item is temperature. NOAA leans warmer across the northern tier than the Almanac does, and in a wet pattern a couple of degrees decides whether a storm is a powder day or a washout.
NOAA’s full outlook is here and Direct Weather’s snowfall forecast is here. Long-range calls move, so check back before booking anything.
