A developing strong El Niño continues to draw attention from meteorologists as the upcoming winter approaches. The latest outlook from the Climate Prediction Center points to an 81 percent chance that a very strong El Niño will develop during the October through December period. While every El Niño is different, weather patterns from the historic winter of 1982 and 1983 may offer valuable clues about what could be ahead.
Rather than expecting an exact repeat, Weather With Travis took a look similarities in ocean temperatures and large scale atmospheric patterns that could shape snowfall, storms, and temperature trends across North America.
Ocean Conditions Are Already Looking Different
One of the biggest changes compared to last year is the dramatic warming across the eastern Pacific Ocean. Waters off the coast of South America and Mexico have become much warmer than average, signaling that El Niño is strengthening.
At the same time, cooler than average waters have developed across parts of the North Pacific, especially south of Alaska and near the West Coast. According to the analysis, this combination could help strengthen both the subtropical jet stream and the northern branch of the jet stream later this winter.
If those two systems interact, they could create favorable conditions for powerful winter storms across parts of the United States.
Looking Back At The Winter Of 1982 And 1983
The winter of 1982 and 1983 remains one of the strongest El Niño events on record. Overall, temperatures were warmer than average across much of the northern United States while wetter conditions developed across the West Coast and much of the South.
Heavy rain caused flooding in parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley, while repeated Pacific storms slammed into California and other western states. At the same time, several significant snowstorms still developed across the Rockies, Great Plains, Midwest, and Northeast despite the generally warmer winter pattern.
One notable Christmas storm buried parts of Colorado and Nebraska with heavy snowfall before producing flooding rains farther south. Additional storms followed through January and February, demonstrating that a warm El Niño winter can still deliver major snow events.
Other Climate Signals Could Change The Forecast
Travis emphasizes that El Niño alone will not determine how winter unfolds. Other climate patterns including the Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation could play an equally important role.
During the winter of 1982 and 1983, both oscillations shifted into a negative phase by February. That change allowed colder Arctic air to move south, helping produce major snowstorms across the Midwest and East Coast, including snowfall totals approaching 30 inches in parts of the Northeast.
Forecasters will also monitor Siberian snow cover and Arctic sea ice during the fall, as both can influence how much cold air becomes available later in the season.
While long range forecasts continue to evolve, the developing El Niño and comparisons to the winter of 1982 and 1983 suggest another active weather season may be taking shape. Whether that translates into record snowfall or widespread storms will depend on how several atmospheric ingredients come together in the months ahead.
