El Niño has arrived, and NOAA says the pattern is on track to become one of the strongest on record. While it’s impossible to know for certain how this will impact the winter ahead across North America, some regions are more likely to benefit than others.
California and the Southwest stand to gain the most. During some of the strongest El Niño winters of the past 60 years, above average precipitation hit the entirety of California, while strong events also brought median or above median snowfall statewide. Given how powerful this El Niño is shaping up to be, the Sierra Nevada, the Southern California mountains, and resorts across the Southwest could be in line for a heavy winter similar to those major years.
The outlook flips the otherway when you head further north. El Niño winters typically bring a southward shift in the jet stream which pulls storms away from the Pacific Northwest and the northern Rockies. That leaves resorts in Washington, Oregon, Idaho, and Montana at greater risk of a drier than normal season, paired with warmer temperatures across the northern tier of the country. The same dry pattern tends to show up in the Ohio Valley as well.
The Gulf Coast and Southeast, from Texas to Florida, usually see wetter conditions during El Niño winters, a signal that has held up in the vast majority of past events, though that region has little bearing on the ski season.
Not every pattern behaves exactly the same, and it’s important to remember that even the strongest events have produced uneven results in the past. Still, with this one shaping up to be historically strong, the odds seem to be tilted more heavily toward these classic regional patterns playing out across the country this winter.