The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration‘s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center issued its spring 2026 seasonal outlook, offering probabilistic forecasts for temperature and precipitation across the U.S for April, May, and June.
Spring Temperature Outlook
The temperature forecast points to a very warm spring across a broad swath of the country, with the most intense signal centered over the interior West. Utah, Nevada, Colorado, and surrounding states show the highest probabilities of above-normal temperatures, with some areas in the 60-70% likelihood range. The warmth fans out from that core across the entire West Coast, the Southwest, the Plains, and much of the South, all leaning above normal at 40-50% probability.
The Northeast, Upper Midwest, and northernmost Plains fall into the equal chances zone, meaning those areas have no strong lean toward warmer or cooler than normal conditions this spring. Alaska shows above-normal temperature odds for much of the Western portion of the state, while most of the interior fall into equal chances territory.
Spring Precipitation Outlook
The precipitation picture for spring tells a notably different story depending on where you live. The biggest signal on the map is a broad below-normal precipitation area centered over the Intermountain West, with the core of the dry signal covering Utah, Colorado, Wyoming, and Idaho at 40-50% probability of below-normal rainfall and snowpack. That dryness extends outward across much of the Northwest at lower probabilities.
On the wetter side, the Great Lakes region and parts of the Northeast show above-normal precipitation chances, as do Florida and souther South Caroline, Georgia, and Alabama. A large equal chances zone covers most of the central U.S. from the Midwest through the southern Plains. In Alaska, the northwest leans above normal while the interior falls into equal chances.
Key Takeaways
NOAA’s spring outlook points to a warmer than normal season across most of the West and South, with the highest confidence of heat centered over the Rockies and Intermountain West. That same region also faces the best chance of a drier than normal spring, which could have implications for snowpack, wildfire risk, and water resources heading into summer. The eastern half of the country is largely a coin flip on both temperature and precipitation.
