El Nino Winter Weather Forecast 2014 - 2015 | Official NOAA Winter Outlook

El Nino Winter Weather Forecast 2014 - 2015 | Official NOAA Winter Outlook

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El Nino Winter Weather Forecast 2014 - 2015 | Official NOAA Winter Outlook

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NOAA has just released their official 2014 – 2015 winter weather forecast / prediction / outlook. Below are winter weather maps for both precipitation probabilities and temperature probabilities for the months of November, December, January and January, February, March. These winter weather prediction maps from NOAA reflect the belief that an El Niño will have a strong affect on precipitation and snowfall this winter across the United States.  

Official 2014 -2015 Winter Weather Forecast From NOAA

November, December, January Weather Forecast Map for 2015

November, December, January 2015 Precipitation Forecast Map

January Febuary March

January, Febuary, March, 2015 Precipitation Forecast Map

PRECIPITATION

THROUGH AUTUMN 2014, THERE ARE FAIRLY STRONG AND CONSISTENT INDICATIONS FROM MOST MODELS RUN AS PART OF THE NMME AND IMME FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST, SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DO CONTRADICT COMPOSITES AND CORRELATIONS BASED ON NINO3.4 INDEX VALUES OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST, SO THE PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE REDUCED WHERE THE COMPOSITES MOST STRONGLY DISAGREE.

AS SEASONS PROGRESS INTO WINTER THE OUTLOOKS REFLECT THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH EL NINO EVENTS, WITH ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FAVORED THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN EXPECTED ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM, AND A TENDENCY FOR BELOW-MEDIAN AMOUNTS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND ALSO IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AT THIS POINT PROBABILITIES ARE ONLY MARGINALLY DIFFERENT FROM CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES IN MOST AREAS DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE EVENTUAL STRENGTH OF EL NINO.

THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR MAM 2015 AND BEYOND SHOW EQUAL CHANCES FOR BELOW-, NEAR- AND ABOVE-MEDIAN SEASONAL ACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE CONUS AND ALASKA. STATISTICAL MODELS SHOW THE NINO 3.4 SSTS WEAKENING TO NEAR NORMAL BY LATE SPRING 2015, LEAVING LITTLE PREDICTABLE SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES.

November, December, January 2015 Temperature Forecast Map

November, December, January 2015 Temperature Forecast Map

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January, February, March 2015 Temperature Forecast Map

TEMPERATURE

THE ASO THROUGH NDJ 2014-15 TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS INDICATE ELEVATED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL SEASONAL MEAN TEMPERATURES FOR ALL OF ALASKA. ABOVE-NORMAL SSTS ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC WERE A FACTOR IN THE ALASKA OUTLOOKS. ELEVATED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL SEASONAL MEAN TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA TO THE WEST OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS DURING ASO AND SON 2014, WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH CON, NMME, AND IMME OUTPUTS. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGH OND 2014. THESE SIGNALS ARE SUPPORTED BY A BROAD RANGE OF TOOLS AND DYNAMICAL CLIMATE MODELS.

COMPOSITES BASED ON THE CURRENT PHASE OF THE PDO AND DEVELOPING ENSO WARM EVENTS FAVOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE AUTUMN. FROM NDJ 2014-15 THROUGH MAM 2015, BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS, SUPPORTED BY DYNAMICAL MODEL OUTPUT, CPC EL NINO COMPOSITES, AND REGRESSIONS OF TEMPERATURE ONTO THE NINO3.4 AND MULTIVARIATE ENSO INDICES.

THE OUTLOOKS FROM AMJ TO ASO 2015 SHOW A COMBINATION OF RECENT TRENDS AND TYPICAL EVOLUTION FOLLOWING EL NINO EVENTS AS WELL AS THE CPC CON. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES COVERED MOST OF THE MAPS, CONSISTENT WITH THE CPC CON, WITH THE PROBABILITY VALUES CHANGED LITTLE FROM LAST MONTH.

IN AREAS WITHOUT SUBSTANTIAL AND RELIABLE CLIMATE SIGNALS, EQUAL CHANCES OF BELOW-, NEAR- AND ABOVE-NORMAL SEASONAL MEAN TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED.

FORECASTER: MATTHEW ROSENCRANS

Read the full forecast here: NOAA 2015 Winter Weather Forecast / Outlook/ Prediction 

[photo credit: Johnny Adolphson via Shutterstock]

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