El Niño is continuing to strengthen across the tropical Pacific, with NOAA now projecting a strong to very strong event through the heart of winter 2026-27.
The latest El Niño Southern Oscillation diagnostic discussion from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, issued October 8th, reports that ocean temperatures across the eastern equatorial Pacific have risen sharply. Sea surface temperature anomalies exceeded 7.2 degrees Fahrenheit in portions of the eastern Pacific last month.
The Niño 3.4 index, which is commonly used to monitor El Niño, reached 2.1 degrees Celsius above average. Other key regions were even warmer, with the Niño 3 index reaching 3.0 degrees Celsius and Niño 1+2 reaching 3.9 degrees Celsius.
The unusually warm water extends below the ocean surface as well. NOAA reported subsurface temperatures exceeding 18 degrees Fahrenheit above average at depth in the eastern Pacific, helping reinforce the atmospheric pattern associated with El Niño.
Historic Strength Remains Possible
NOAA’s latest outlook continues to show the potential for an unusually powerful El Niño event. The agency gives the event a 54 percent chance of reaching historic strength during September through November, an 83 percent chance during October through December, and a 70 percent chance during November through January.
For an event to qualify as historic under NOAA’s criteria, the three-month relative Oceanic Niño Index must reach at least 2.5 degrees Celsius above average.
NOAA says El Niño is likely to continue strengthening through the end of 2026. There remains greater than an 83 percent chance that a strong to very strong El Niño will persist through January, February and March 2027.
What It Could Mean For Skiing And Snowboarding
A powerful El Niño does not guarantee specific weather outcomes for individual ski resorts, but the strengthening signal is important for skiers and snowboarders watching the 2026-27 winter forecast.
El Niño can alter the position of the jet stream and shift typical precipitation and temperature patterns across the United States. Those changes can create significant differences in snowfall from one region to another, meaning the strength of this event alone does not determine whether a particular resort will have a snowy winter.
The latest NOAA discussion does, however, reinforce that this winter is likely to be shaped by one of the strongest El Niño events seen in decades.
With the event continuing to strengthen, attention will now turn toward how the evolving Pacific pattern influences snowfall and temperatures across the mountains of the United States and Canada.
NOAA’s next ENSO Diagnostic Discussion is scheduled for November 12th, 2026.
