Farmers Almanac / NOAA 2013 Spring Prediction

The Farmers Almanac has not yet released their weather prediction for the Spring of 2013. We will be sure to post the Farmers Almanac rain/snow outlook as well as their temperature forecast for the March, April and May as soon as they post it. Until then read up on NOAA’s spring 2013 weather forecast below. 

NOAA‘s Spring Weather Forecast for 2013   

THE MAIN FACTORS WHICH USUALLY INFLUENCE THE SEASONAL CLIMATE OUTLOOK INCLUDE: 
1) EL NINO AND LA NINA - WHICH TOGETHER COMPRISE EL NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION 
OR ENSO. IMPACTS OF THESE EVENTS ARE SUMMARIZED BY SEPARATING 3-MONTH 
OBSERVATIONS FROM 3 OR MORE DECADES INTO EL NINO, NEUTRAL, AND LA NINA SETS, 
AVERAGING EACH SEPARATELY, AND THEN COMPUTING ANOMALIES. THESE ARE CALLED "ENSO 
COMPOSITES", WHICH ARE USED AT TIMES TO SUBJECTIVELY MODIFY THE FORECAST. 
2) TRENDS - APPROXIMATED BY THE OCN TOOL AS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MOST 
RECENT 10-YEAR MEAN OF TEMPERATURE OR 15-YEAR MEAN OF PRECIPITATION FOR A GIVEN 
LOCATION AND TIME OF YEAR AND THE 30-YEAR CLIMATOLOGY PERIOD (CURRENTLY 
1981-2010). 
3) THE TROPICAL 30-60 DAY OSCILLATION - SOMETIMES CALLED MADDEN JULIAN 
OSCILLATION (MJO) - AFFECTS CLIMATE VARIABILITY WITHIN SEASONS. 
4) THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION (NAO) AND THE PACIFIC NORTH AMERICAN (PNA) 
PATTERNS - WHICH AFFECT THE TEMPERATURE ANOMALY PATTERN ESPECIALLY DURING THE 
COLD SEASONS. THESE PHENOMENA ARE CONSIDERED LESS PREDICTABLE ON A SEASONAL 
TIMESCALE THAN ENSO. 
5) THE PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION (PDO) - AN ENSO-LIKE PATTERN OF CLIMATE 
VARIABILITY AFFECTING THE TROPICS AND THE NORTH PACIFIC AND NORTH AMERICAN 
REGIONS, BUT WHICH VARIES ON A MUCH LONGER TIME-SCALE THAN ENSO. 
6) PERSISTENTLY DRY OR WET SOILS IN THE SPRING AND SUMMER AND SNOW AND ICE 
COVER ANOMALIES IN THE WINTER. THESE FACTORS TEND TO PERSIST FOR LONG PERIODS 
AND ACT AS A KIND OF MEMORY IN THE CLIMATE SYSTEM. 
7) STATISTICAL FORECAST TOOLS - CANONICAL CORRELATION ANALYSIS (CCA), SCREENING 
MULTIPLE LINEAR REGRESSION (SMLR), CONSTRUCTED ANALOGUE (CA) AND ENSEMBLE CCA 
(ECCA). 
8) DYNAMICAL FORECAST MODELS - INCLUDING THE NCEP CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM 
(CFS). AN EXPERIMENTAL MODEL FORECAST SYSTEM, THE NATIONAL MULTI-MODEL 
ENSEMBLE, COMPRISED OF SEVERAL MODELS AND DESIGNATED NMME, MAY ALSO BE USED 
EXPERIMENTALLY AND SUBJECTIVELY UNTIL IT IS INCLUDED INTO THE CONSOLIDATION. AN 
INTERNATIONAL MODEL ENSEMBLE DESIGNATED IMME IS ALSO AVAILABLE. 
9) CONSOLIDATION (CON) - AN OBJECTIVE, SKILL WEIGHTED COMBINATION OF THE OCN, 
CCA, SMLR, ECCA, AND CFS FORECASTS IS USED AS A FIRST GUESS IN PREPARING THE 
FORECAST MAPS. THIS TECHNIQUE MAKES OPTIMUM USE OF THE KNOWN SKILL OF OUR 
FORECAST TOOLS. 

ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC OBSERVATIONS FROM JANUARY AND EARLY FEBRUARY INDICATE 
CONTINUED ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS. PREDICTIONS OF SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) 
IN THE NINO 3.4 REGION OF THE PACIFIC OCEAN FROM DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL 
MODELS INDICATE THAT SST WILL BE CLOSE TO THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MEAN THROUGH 
BOREAL SUMMER. THE ENSO OUTLOOK IS FOR A CONTINUATION OF ENSO-NEUTRAL 
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE SPRING OF 2013. BECAUSE THE SKILL OF ENSO PREDICTION IS 
GENERALLY LOW BEYOND THE BOREAL SPRING SEASON, CONFIDENCE IN PREDICTIONS FOR 
THE STATE OF ENSO IN SUMMER 2013 AND BEYOND IS LOW. 
 
THE SEASONAL TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR MAM 2013 INDICATES ENHANCED PROBABILITIES 
FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE U.S. FROM THE 
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, INCLUDING ALL AREAS EAST OF 
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE PROBABILITIES OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE 
ENHANCED FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SOUTHERN ALASKA INCLUDING THE ALASKAN 
PANHANDLE. 
 
THE MAM 2013 PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK INDICATES ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS MORE 
LIKELY FROM THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN AND 
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. THE PROBABILITIES OF BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE 
ENHANCED FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN U.S., WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WASHINGTON STATE, 
MONTANA AND THE DAKOTAS. THE LIKELIHOOD OF BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS ALSO 
INCREASED ALONG THE GULF AND SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTS AND FOR THE FLORIDA 
PENINSULA. 
 
IN AREAS WHERE THE LIKELIHOODS OF SEASONAL MEAN TEMPERATURES AND SEASONAL 
ACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE SIMILAR TO CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES, 
EQUAL CHANCES (EC) IS SHOWN. 
 
BASIS AND SUMMARY OF THE CURRENT LONG-LEAD OUTLOOKS 
NOTE: FOR GRAPHICAL DISPLAYS OF THE FORECAST TOOLS DISCUSSED BELOW SEE: 
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/90DAY/TOOLS/BRIEFING 
 
CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS 
 
EQUATORIAL SSTS ARE SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE WESTERN PACIFIC, CLOSE TO 
LONG TERM AVERAGES THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL PACIFIC, AND SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE 
IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. MOST OF THE ANOMALIES ARE WITHIN ONE DEGREE CELSIUS OF 
THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. SST ANOMALIES IN THE EAST-CENTRAL PACIFIC NINO 3.4 
REGION HAVE BEEN HIGHLY VARIABLE DURING JANUARY AND EARLY FEBRUARY 2013 WHILE 
REMAINING NEGATIVE. THE CURRENT WEEKLY NINO 3.4 INDEX IS -0.3 C. NEGATIVE 
ANOMALIES IN HEAT CONTENT IN THE UPPER 300 METERS OF THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC 
OCEAN APPEAR TO HAVE PEAKED IN MID-JANUARY AS AVERAGE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE 
NOW LESS NEGATIVE. LOW LEVEL WINDS AT 850 HPA ACROSS MUCH OF THE EQUATORIAL 
PACIFIC WERE CLOSE TO AVERAGE DURING THE LAST 30 DAYS, WHILE EASTERLY ANOMALIES 
WERE OBSERVED IN THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS AT 200 HPA OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL 
EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. NEGATIVE ANOMALIES IN OUTGOING LONG-WAVE RADIATION (OLR) 
JUST WEST OF THE DATE LINE INDICATE ENHANCED CONVECTION, AND POSITIVE ANOMALIES 
IN OLR NEAR INDONESIA INDICATE SUPPRESSED CONVECTION FOR THE LAST 30 DAYS, AS 
INFLUENCED BY RECENT MJO ACTIVITY. 
 
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF SST FORECASTS 
 
ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH BOREAL SPRING 2013. THE 
NINO 3.4 SST ANOMALY FORECAST FROM THE CFSV2 AS WELL AS OTHER DYNAMICAL MODEL 
FORECASTS INDICATE A GRADUAL WARMING FROM THE CURRENT -0.3 C ANOMALY TOWARDS 
ZERO ANOMALY DURING MAM 2013. MOST DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS PREDICT THE 
NINO 3.4 SST ANOMALY TO REMAIN BETWEEN -0.5 C AND +0.5 C THROUGH MJJ 2013. SST 
FORECASTS SUPPORT ENSO NEUTRAL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE SPRING, WITH GREATER 
UNCERTAINTY FOLLOWING THE SPRING BARRIER. 
 
PROGNOSTIC TOOLS USED FOR U.S. TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS 
 
THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS WERE MADE CONSIDERING ENSO-NEUTRAL 
CONDITIONS TO BE MOST LIKELY THROUGH BOREAL SPRING. THE FORECASTS WERE BASED 
PRIMARILY ON DYNAMICAL MODEL OUTPUT FROM THE CFSV2, NMME AND IMME FOR MAM 
THROUGH MJJ 2013, WITH SOME ADDITIONAL CONSIDERATION OF STATISTICAL FORECAST 
TOOLS, DECADAL TRENDS AND THE CONSOLIDATION FORECAST. OUTLOOKS FOR JJA 2013 
ONWARD WERE BASED MOSTLY ON THE CONSOLIDATION, WHICH LARGELY REFLECTS DECADAL 
CLIMATE TRENDS. 
 
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF OUTLOOKS - MAM 2013 TO MAM 2014 
 
TEMPERATURE 
 
THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS FOR MAM THROUGH MJJ 2013 INDICATE ENHANCED CHANCES FOR 
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE SOUTHWEST, THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, 
AND THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS, WHILE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF BELOW NORMAL 
TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED FOR SOUTHERN ALASKA AND THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE. THESE 
ANOMALY FORECASTS ARE SUPPORTED BY THE MODELS OF THE NMME AND IMME, AND ALSO 
LARGELY CONSISTENT WITH DECADAL TRENDS. SUBSTANTIAL SOIL MOISTURE DEFICITS OVER 
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS ARE ALSO CONSISTENT WITH AN INCREASED LIKELIHOOD OF 
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. PROBABILITIES OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE 
ENHANCED FOR PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IN THE FIRST TWO LEADS. NORTHERN 
ALASKA IS MORE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR AMJ THROUGH 
OND 2013 AS INDICATED BY THE DECADAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND FOR THE EARLY 
LEADS, BY SEVERAL DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS. THESE TEMPERATURE TRENDS ARE DUE 
IN PART TO REDUCED ARCTIC OCEAN SEA ICE COVER IN THIS REGION DURING RECENT 
YEARS FOR THE SPRING THROUGH AUTUMN SEASONS. 
 
INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE 
CONUS THROUGH SUMMER INTO ASO 2013. BEYOND ASO 2013, TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS ARE 
PRIMARILY A RESULT OF SIGNALS RELATED TO DECADAL VARIABILITY AS DETERMINED BY 
THE CONSOLIDATION FORECAST. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES 
CONTINUE FOR THE GREAT LAKES REGION, THE NORTHEAST, AND THE SOUTHWEST 
THROUGHOUT THE YEAR INTO MAM 2014. 
 
IN AREAS WITHOUT SUBSTANTIAL AND RELIABLE CLIMATE SIGNALS, EQUAL CHANCES OF 
BELOW, NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL SEASONAL MEAN TEMPERATURES IS INDICATED 
 
PRECIPITATION 
 
THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR MAM 2013 INDICATES ELEVATED CHANCES FOR BELOW 
MEDIAN ACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION OVER A LARGE AREA OF THE WESTERN CONUS AS 
INDICATED BY A CONSENSUS OF DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS FROM THE NMME AND IMME, 
WITH ENAHANCED CHANCES OF ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE CENTRAL 
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. 
THIS PATTERN CONTINUES OVERALL INTO THE AMJ SEASON WITH SOME INCREASE IN 
UNCERTAINTY FOR THE SOUTHWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES 
OF BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION CONTINUE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR MJJ AND JJA, 
WHILE DECADAL TRENDS IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ARE FOR BELOW MEDIAN 
PRECIPITATION FOR THE SUMMER SEASONS. WHILE DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE A 
CONTINUATION OF THE TENDENCY FOR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IN PARTS OF THE 
SOUTHWEST MONSOON REGION AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH SUMMER 2013, 
THESE ANOMALIES ARE NOT INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL OUTLOOKS DUE TO INCREASING 
UNCERTAINTY IN THESE MODEL FORECASTS WITH LONGER LEAD TIMES. DECADAL TRENDS FOR 
BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ALSO EMERGE IN THE SOUTHEAST FOR LATE AUTUMN OF 2013 
INTO EARLY SPRING OF 2014. 
 
IN AREAS WITHOUT SUBSTANTIAL AND RELIABLE CLIMATE SIGNALS, EQUAL CHANCES OF 
BELOW, NEAR AND ABOVE MEDIAN SEASONAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IS INDICATED. 
 
FORECASTER: DAN COLLINS