UNITED STATES – Long term forecasts always feel like a bit of a shot in the dark, but they don’t mean nothing, especially when presented by NOAA. On September 12, NOAA released an updated La Niña forecast, showing that there’s a 71% chance of it emerging between September and November. The climate pattern is also expected to last through January-March of 2025. But what will the actual whether look like? Again it’s impossible to know for sure at this point but NOAA’s numbers are still worth looking at.
NOAA’s seasonal temperature outlook show temperatures trending towards colder than normal in the Pacific Northwest and warmer than normal across most of the southern and eastern portions of the country. In most of Washington state, there’s a 40-50% chance of temperatures leaning below normal, while most of Oregon, northern Idaho, and most of Montana have a 33-40% chance of temperatures leaning below normal.
In southern Colorado and Utah, western Arizona, and portions of the midwest heading up to Michigan, there’s a 33-40% chance of temperature leaning above normal. New England, New York, Pennsylvania, etc., have a 40-50% chance of temperatures leaning above normal, while many southern states are looking at a 50-60% chance of temperatures being above normal.=
NOAA’s seasonal precipitation outlook, similar to the temperature outlook, seems to favor the Pacific Northwest. Washington state, northern Oregon, northern Idaho, and northern Montana all have a 40-50% chancee of above normal precipitation, while southern Oregon, northern California, central Idaho, and southern Montana have a 33-40% chance. That probably spreads into Pennsylvania, northern New York, and northern New England. Over Indiana and parts of Ohio, a 50-60% chance of above normal precipitation exists.
Much of Colorado, Utah, and southern California, on the other hand, have a 33-40% chance of below normal precipitation, while Arizona, southeast Utah, and southern Colorado have a 40-50% chance of the same. Much of New Mexico, Texas, and the southern most areas of the United States have a 50-60% chance of below normal precipitation.