Palisades Tahoe Releases Its Own Winter Weather Forecast

I know you’ve already seen a million winter weather forecasts for the upcoming season. Both of the farmer’s almanacs have already released predictions (yes, there are two) and plenty of meteorologists have stated their beliefs. Most of them, at this point, say pretty similar things. El Niño is coming, which means warmer weather through central and western Canada, possibly impacting portions of the northern United States.

However, we’ve never seen a ski resort release their own predictions. Has it happened before? I wouldn’t be surprised, but we haven’t caught it in the past. This year, though, Palisades Tahoe’s weather blog has released their own winter weather forecast. A resort (a business) releasing their own forecast could go poorly in many different ways, but this one seems to be pretty solid.

First of all, claiming that a false weather report is “official” can get you in some trouble with the law, so you probably won’t ever see a resorts claiming something like “we’re going to get slammed with snow all winter, book your trips now!” This Palisades Tahoe blog post, written by Bryan Allegretto is just looking at the statistics of the past and making an educated guess based on that information (that’s basically what weather reports are, right?).

Palisade Tahoe’s 2023/24 Winter Forecast

Allegretto points out that, during 50% of past major El Niño years, areas around Palisades Tahoe received above-median precipitation as of May 31. More specifically, major El Niño years produced above-median snowfall 6 out of 10 times as of May 31. December and January both see a median snowfall in El Niño years fairly above the yearly median, with December receiving 156% of its median and January receiving 132%. So what’s the major takeaway? Historically, El Niño years produce above-median snowfall totals at Palisades Tahoe.

Now, last year was a La Niña year, and Palisades Tahoe (like many resorts) saw more snow than ever. So do the two weather patterns just mean more snow for the Tahoe region? Or do they basically just mean nothing? Those are my major questions coming out of this report. Of course, pre-season forecasts will never be 100% accurate. This year could be another mind-blower or it could be a huge disappointment. We just think it’s quite interesting that Palisades Tahoe decided to release their own report!