NOAA Just Issued Its 2017-2018 Winter Outlook | 'La Niña Likely To Develop'

“Winter is coming” – Mike Halpert, NOAA

Even though NOAA isn’t as stoked as we are, their latest climate outlook for the winter of 2017-2018 has most of us jumping for joy.

With the exception of the Southwest, ski areas across the west can expect above average precipitation this upcoming season. Meanwhile back east, New England is forecasted to see higher than average temps while seeing equal chances for average precipitation.

“La Niña is likely to develop. During La Niña winters, we often see greater than average snowfall around the Great Lakes and Northern Rockies.” – Mike Halpert, NOAA

Models also indicate drought should largely be eradicated from the PNW and Northern Rockies while areas in the south that didn’t see any relief during this year’s eventful hurricane season will stay high and dry.

Places where the forecast odds favor a much drier than usual winter (brown colors) or much wetter than usual winter (blue-green), or where the probability of a dry winter, a wet winter, or a near-normal winter are all equal (white). The darker the color, the stronger the chance of that outcome (**not** the bigger the departure from average).

Places where the forecast odds favor a much colder than usual winter (blue colors) or much warmer than usual winter (red), or where the probability of a cold winter, a warm winter, or a near-normal winter are all equal (white). The darker the color, the stronger the chance of that outcome (not the bigger the departure from average).

The 2017 U.S. Winter Outlook (December through February):

Precipitation

Wetter-than-average conditions are favored across most of the northern United States, extending from the northern Rockies, to the eastern Great Lakes, the Ohio Valley, in Hawaii and in western and northern Alaska.

Drier-than-normal conditions are most likely across the entire southern U.S.

Temperature

Warmer-than-normal conditions are most likely across the southern two-thirds of the continental U.S., along the East Coast, across Hawaii and in western and northern Alaska.

Below-average temperatures are favored along the Northern Tier of the country from Minnesota to the Pacific Northwest and in southeastern Alaska.

The rest of the country falls into the equal chance category, which means they have an equal chance for above-, near-, or below-normal temperatures and/or precipitation because there is not a strong enough climate signal in these areas to shift the odds.

Drought

Despite the outlook favoring above-average precipitation this winter, drought is likely to persist in parts of the northern Plains, although improvement is anticipated farther West.

Elsewhere, drought could develop across scattered areas of the South, mainly in regions that missed the rainfall associated with the active 2017 hurricane season.

Find the entire post here: The Climate Prediction Center’s Mike Halpert explains NOAA’s 2017-18 winter outlook