With all the news swirling about La Niña becoming a no-show, OnTheSnow‘s Chris Tomer is here to update the Winter Weather Outlook for the 16/17 winter season.
Original Post: North America’s Winter Weather Outlook For 2016/2017
The new forecast puts ENSO neutral conditions lasting well into fall before Ullr’s prized pow arrives late to winter. However, that same forecast has the jet stream moving further north as a ridge builds along the Pacific Crest, giving way to large snowfall totals for the PNW along with coastal and interior British Columbia.
“Water temperatures in all three zones help determine where the wintertime jet stream will position itself, and that in turn helps determine where the heaviest snowfall ends up this winter.” – Chris Tomer
The losers in this equation include the Sierra, Southwest Colorado, Arizona, Nevada, and New Mexico. That said, look for the Northeast to bounce back from their historically miserable snowfall season this past year.
Percentage of Average Snowfall this Winter
- Mount Hood, Mount Baker, Mount Rainier: 120%
- Whistler, Lake Louise: 120%
- Schweitzer, Sun Valley, Bogus Basin: 120%
- Big Sky, Whitefish, Bridger Bowl: 120%
- Jackson Hole, Grand Targhee: 120%
- Steamboat, Buffalo Pass: 105%
- Jay Peak, Sugarbush, Sugarloaf, Killington: 105%
- Squaw Valley, Northstar, Heavenly: 95%
- Aspen, Copper, Vail, Loveland: 95%
- Alta, Snowbird, Park City: 95%
- Mammoth: 85%
Tomer’s Take: I have a feeling that it’s going to be a late start to Winter. If you’re planning a Christmas ski vacation, the dark green Western bullseye in the graphic is your best bet where the odds are highest for consistent, above normal snowfall.
I would expect a few more small changes to this overall forecast in the next two months as water temperatures continue to change. Please check back.
Find snowfall totals, conditions, and weather reports here: OnTheSnow