Farmers Almanac / NOAA 2013 Spring Prediction
The Farmers Almanac has not yet released their weather prediction for the Spring of 2013. We will be sure to post the Farmers Almanac rain/snow outlook as well as their temperature forecast for the March, April and May as soon as they post it. Until then read up on NOAA’s spring 2013 weather forecast below.
NOAA‘s Spring Weather Forecast for 2013
THE MAIN FACTORS WHICH USUALLY INFLUENCE THE SEASONAL CLIMATE OUTLOOK INCLUDE: 1) EL NINO AND LA NINA - WHICH TOGETHER COMPRISE EL NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION OR ENSO. IMPACTS OF THESE EVENTS ARE SUMMARIZED BY SEPARATING 3-MONTH OBSERVATIONS FROM 3 OR MORE DECADES INTO EL NINO, NEUTRAL, AND LA NINA SETS, AVERAGING EACH SEPARATELY, AND THEN COMPUTING ANOMALIES. THESE ARE CALLED "ENSO COMPOSITES", WHICH ARE USED AT TIMES TO SUBJECTIVELY MODIFY THE FORECAST. 2) TRENDS - APPROXIMATED BY THE OCN TOOL AS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MOST RECENT 10-YEAR MEAN OF TEMPERATURE OR 15-YEAR MEAN OF PRECIPITATION FOR A GIVEN LOCATION AND TIME OF YEAR AND THE 30-YEAR CLIMATOLOGY PERIOD (CURRENTLY 1981-2010). 3) THE TROPICAL 30-60 DAY OSCILLATION - SOMETIMES CALLED MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO) - AFFECTS CLIMATE VARIABILITY WITHIN SEASONS. 4) THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION (NAO) AND THE PACIFIC NORTH AMERICAN (PNA) PATTERNS - WHICH AFFECT THE TEMPERATURE ANOMALY PATTERN ESPECIALLY DURING THE COLD SEASONS. THESE PHENOMENA ARE CONSIDERED LESS PREDICTABLE ON A SEASONAL TIMESCALE THAN ENSO. 5) THE PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION (PDO) - AN ENSO-LIKE PATTERN OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY AFFECTING THE TROPICS AND THE NORTH PACIFIC AND NORTH AMERICAN REGIONS, BUT WHICH VARIES ON A MUCH LONGER TIME-SCALE THAN ENSO. 6) PERSISTENTLY DRY OR WET SOILS IN THE SPRING AND SUMMER AND SNOW AND ICE COVER ANOMALIES IN THE WINTER. THESE FACTORS TEND TO PERSIST FOR LONG PERIODS AND ACT AS A KIND OF MEMORY IN THE CLIMATE SYSTEM. 7) STATISTICAL FORECAST TOOLS - CANONICAL CORRELATION ANALYSIS (CCA), SCREENING MULTIPLE LINEAR REGRESSION (SMLR), CONSTRUCTED ANALOGUE (CA) AND ENSEMBLE CCA (ECCA). 8) DYNAMICAL FORECAST MODELS - INCLUDING THE NCEP CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM (CFS). AN EXPERIMENTAL MODEL FORECAST SYSTEM, THE NATIONAL MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE, COMPRISED OF SEVERAL MODELS AND DESIGNATED NMME, MAY ALSO BE USED EXPERIMENTALLY AND SUBJECTIVELY UNTIL IT IS INCLUDED INTO THE CONSOLIDATION. AN INTERNATIONAL MODEL ENSEMBLE DESIGNATED IMME IS ALSO AVAILABLE. 9) CONSOLIDATION (CON) - AN OBJECTIVE, SKILL WEIGHTED COMBINATION OF THE OCN, CCA, SMLR, ECCA, AND CFS FORECASTS IS USED AS A FIRST GUESS IN PREPARING THE FORECAST MAPS. THIS TECHNIQUE MAKES OPTIMUM USE OF THE KNOWN SKILL OF OUR FORECAST TOOLS.
ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC OBSERVATIONS FROM JANUARY AND EARLY FEBRUARY INDICATE CONTINUED ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS. PREDICTIONS OF SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) IN THE NINO 3.4 REGION OF THE PACIFIC OCEAN FROM DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS INDICATE THAT SST WILL BE CLOSE TO THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MEAN THROUGH BOREAL SUMMER. THE ENSO OUTLOOK IS FOR A CONTINUATION OF ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE SPRING OF 2013. BECAUSE THE SKILL OF ENSO PREDICTION IS GENERALLY LOW BEYOND THE BOREAL SPRING SEASON, CONFIDENCE IN PREDICTIONS FOR THE STATE OF ENSO IN SUMMER 2013 AND BEYOND IS LOW. THE SEASONAL TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR MAM 2013 INDICATES ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE U.S. FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, INCLUDING ALL AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE PROBABILITIES OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ENHANCED FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SOUTHERN ALASKA INCLUDING THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE. THE MAM 2013 PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK INDICATES ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS MORE LIKELY FROM THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. THE PROBABILITIES OF BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE ENHANCED FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN U.S., WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WASHINGTON STATE, MONTANA AND THE DAKOTAS. THE LIKELIHOOD OF BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS ALSO INCREASED ALONG THE GULF AND SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTS AND FOR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. IN AREAS WHERE THE LIKELIHOODS OF SEASONAL MEAN TEMPERATURES AND SEASONAL ACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE SIMILAR TO CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES, EQUAL CHANCES (EC) IS SHOWN. BASIS AND SUMMARY OF THE CURRENT LONG-LEAD OUTLOOKS NOTE: FOR GRAPHICAL DISPLAYS OF THE FORECAST TOOLS DISCUSSED BELOW SEE: HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/90DAY/TOOLS/BRIEFING CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS EQUATORIAL SSTS ARE SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE WESTERN PACIFIC, CLOSE TO LONG TERM AVERAGES THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL PACIFIC, AND SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. MOST OF THE ANOMALIES ARE WITHIN ONE DEGREE CELSIUS OF THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. SST ANOMALIES IN THE EAST-CENTRAL PACIFIC NINO 3.4 REGION HAVE BEEN HIGHLY VARIABLE DURING JANUARY AND EARLY FEBRUARY 2013 WHILE REMAINING NEGATIVE. THE CURRENT WEEKLY NINO 3.4 INDEX IS -0.3 C. NEGATIVE ANOMALIES IN HEAT CONTENT IN THE UPPER 300 METERS OF THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN APPEAR TO HAVE PEAKED IN MID-JANUARY AS AVERAGE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE NOW LESS NEGATIVE. LOW LEVEL WINDS AT 850 HPA ACROSS MUCH OF THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC WERE CLOSE TO AVERAGE DURING THE LAST 30 DAYS, WHILE EASTERLY ANOMALIES WERE OBSERVED IN THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS AT 200 HPA OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. NEGATIVE ANOMALIES IN OUTGOING LONG-WAVE RADIATION (OLR) JUST WEST OF THE DATE LINE INDICATE ENHANCED CONVECTION, AND POSITIVE ANOMALIES IN OLR NEAR INDONESIA INDICATE SUPPRESSED CONVECTION FOR THE LAST 30 DAYS, AS INFLUENCED BY RECENT MJO ACTIVITY. PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF SST FORECASTS ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH BOREAL SPRING 2013. THE NINO 3.4 SST ANOMALY FORECAST FROM THE CFSV2 AS WELL AS OTHER DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE A GRADUAL WARMING FROM THE CURRENT -0.3 C ANOMALY TOWARDS ZERO ANOMALY DURING MAM 2013. MOST DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS PREDICT THE NINO 3.4 SST ANOMALY TO REMAIN BETWEEN -0.5 C AND +0.5 C THROUGH MJJ 2013. SST FORECASTS SUPPORT ENSO NEUTRAL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE SPRING, WITH GREATER UNCERTAINTY FOLLOWING THE SPRING BARRIER. PROGNOSTIC TOOLS USED FOR U.S. TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS WERE MADE CONSIDERING ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS TO BE MOST LIKELY THROUGH BOREAL SPRING. THE FORECASTS WERE BASED PRIMARILY ON DYNAMICAL MODEL OUTPUT FROM THE CFSV2, NMME AND IMME FOR MAM THROUGH MJJ 2013, WITH SOME ADDITIONAL CONSIDERATION OF STATISTICAL FORECAST TOOLS, DECADAL TRENDS AND THE CONSOLIDATION FORECAST. OUTLOOKS FOR JJA 2013 ONWARD WERE BASED MOSTLY ON THE CONSOLIDATION, WHICH LARGELY REFLECTS DECADAL CLIMATE TRENDS. PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF OUTLOOKS - MAM 2013 TO MAM 2014 TEMPERATURE THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS FOR MAM THROUGH MJJ 2013 INDICATE ENHANCED CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE SOUTHWEST, THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, AND THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS, WHILE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED FOR SOUTHERN ALASKA AND THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE. THESE ANOMALY FORECASTS ARE SUPPORTED BY THE MODELS OF THE NMME AND IMME, AND ALSO LARGELY CONSISTENT WITH DECADAL TRENDS. SUBSTANTIAL SOIL MOISTURE DEFICITS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS ARE ALSO CONSISTENT WITH AN INCREASED LIKELIHOOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. PROBABILITIES OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ENHANCED FOR PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IN THE FIRST TWO LEADS. NORTHERN ALASKA IS MORE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR AMJ THROUGH OND 2013 AS INDICATED BY THE DECADAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND FOR THE EARLY LEADS, BY SEVERAL DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS. THESE TEMPERATURE TRENDS ARE DUE IN PART TO REDUCED ARCTIC OCEAN SEA ICE COVER IN THIS REGION DURING RECENT YEARS FOR THE SPRING THROUGH AUTUMN SEASONS. INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS THROUGH SUMMER INTO ASO 2013. BEYOND ASO 2013, TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS ARE PRIMARILY A RESULT OF SIGNALS RELATED TO DECADAL VARIABILITY AS DETERMINED BY THE CONSOLIDATION FORECAST. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FOR THE GREAT LAKES REGION, THE NORTHEAST, AND THE SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE YEAR INTO MAM 2014. IN AREAS WITHOUT SUBSTANTIAL AND RELIABLE CLIMATE SIGNALS, EQUAL CHANCES OF BELOW, NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL SEASONAL MEAN TEMPERATURES IS INDICATED PRECIPITATION THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR MAM 2013 INDICATES ELEVATED CHANCES FOR BELOW MEDIAN ACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION OVER A LARGE AREA OF THE WESTERN CONUS AS INDICATED BY A CONSENSUS OF DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS FROM THE NMME AND IMME, WITH ENAHANCED CHANCES OF ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES OVERALL INTO THE AMJ SEASON WITH SOME INCREASE IN UNCERTAINTY FOR THE SOUTHWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION CONTINUE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR MJJ AND JJA, WHILE DECADAL TRENDS IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ARE FOR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE SUMMER SEASONS. WHILE DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE A CONTINUATION OF THE TENDENCY FOR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST MONSOON REGION AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH SUMMER 2013, THESE ANOMALIES ARE NOT INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL OUTLOOKS DUE TO INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THESE MODEL FORECASTS WITH LONGER LEAD TIMES. DECADAL TRENDS FOR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ALSO EMERGE IN THE SOUTHEAST FOR LATE AUTUMN OF 2013 INTO EARLY SPRING OF 2014. IN AREAS WITHOUT SUBSTANTIAL AND RELIABLE CLIMATE SIGNALS, EQUAL CHANCES OF BELOW, NEAR AND ABOVE MEDIAN SEASONAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IS INDICATED. FORECASTER: DAN COLLINS