Professional meteorologist Weather With Travis is pointing to one of the strongest El Niño events on record as a possible roadmap for the upcoming winter, though he cautions that the season may not unfold the way many snow lovers expect. In a new forecast video, Weather With Travis compared the developing 2026 to 2027 El Niño with the powerful 1997 to 1998 event. While the comparison suggests an active storm track across the southern United States, the outlook also raises the possibility that many traditionally snowy regions could experience a warmer than normal winter.
Looking Back at the Winter of 1997 and 1998
According to Travis, the winter of 1997 and 1998 remains one of the strongest modern examples of how a major El Niño can reshape weather across North America. That season featured repeated storms moving into California, widespread heavy rainfall, flooding, and a healthy mountain snowpack across much of the West. At the same time, the southern branch of the jet stream remained exceptionally active, fueling storms from Southern California through the Gulf Coast and into the Southeast.
The pattern also brought severe weather outbreaks and damaging flooding across portions of the South while leaving large sections of the northern United States significantly warmer than average.
What Could Happen This Winter
A similarly strong El Niño could once again become the dominant driver of North American weather during the 2026 to 2027 winter. He pointed to dramatically warmer Pacific Ocean temperatures compared to last year and noted that the latest Climate Prediction Center guidance continues to indicate a very high likelihood of a strong El Niño developing and persisting into winter.
If that pattern holds, he expects the southern jet stream to remain highly active, increasing the chances for frequent storms across California, the Southwest, Texas, and the Southeast. Mountain regions in Southern California, Arizona, New Mexico, Utah, Colorado, and parts of the Sierra Nevada could see near normal or even above normal snowfall thanks to the increased moisture.
Snow Outlook May Disappoint Some Regions
While an active storm track often excites winter weather enthusiasts, Travis warned that not every snow region stands to benefit. He expects much of the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest to lean warmer than recent winters, reducing snowfall opportunities. The Interstate 95 corridor in the Northeast could also struggle if temperatures remain too mild, similar to what occurred during the winter of 1997 and 1998 when cities like New York received very little snow.
The Central Plains and central Rockies may become a battleground where cold air and moisture periodically combine to produce significant snowstorms. Meanwhile, the Deep South could face repeated heavy rain, flooding, and an active severe weather season as powerful storm systems tap into abundant Gulf moisture.
Despite the broad outlook, Travis stressed that there are still many variables. Arctic sea ice, Siberian snow cover, and the timing of cold air outbreaks will all influence how the winter ultimately unfolds. His early conclusion is that while the season could produce several major winter storms, many snow lovers expecting a blockbuster winter simply because of El Niño may end up disappointed.
