NOAA has released a new Winter Weather Prediction 2027, offering an early look at the temperature and precipitation patterns that could develop across the United States during the heart of the upcoming winter.
The latest outlook from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center covers January, February and March 2027. It shows a recognizable El Niño pattern beginning to emerge: wetter conditions across much of the southern United States, drier weather across portions of the northern Rockies and increased odds of above-normal temperatures across large sections of the country.
These maps do not predict exact snowfall totals or individual winter storms. However, they provide an important early indication of where the storm track may favor wetter, drier, warmer or cooler conditions during the 2026–2027 winter.
What Period Does NOAA’s Winter Weather Prediction Cover?
The attached NOAA maps cover the three-month period from January through March 2027, commonly abbreviated as JFM.
That means this is not a forecast for the entire winter. December 2026 is not included in these particular maps. NOAA publishes overlapping three-month forecasts throughout the year, including November–January, December–February and January–March outlooks.
The January–March period is still extremely important for skiers because it includes the heart of the season, when most mountain regions are normally building their deepest snowpack.
NOAA issued this forecast on July 16, 2026. The outlook will be updated monthly as winter approaches.
Related: Winter Weather Forecast 2027: Snowfall Outlook For Next Winter
A Powerful El Niño Could Shape Winter 2026–2027
The biggest factor influencing the Winter Weather Prediction 2027 is a rapidly strengthening El Niño.
In its latest ENSO Diagnostic Discussion, NOAA said El Niño is expected to strengthen through the end of 2026 and has a 97% chance of continuing into early spring 2027.
NOAA also gives the developing event an 81% chance of reaching “very strong” intensity between October and December 2026.
El Niño develops when water temperatures across the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean become warmer than normal. That additional warmth can rearrange atmospheric circulation and shift the position of the jet stream across North America.
During stronger El Niño winters, the Pacific storm track frequently shifts south. This can increase precipitation across California, the Southwest, southern Rockies, southern Plains and Southeast while leaving parts of the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies warmer or drier.
Every El Niño is different, however, and the pattern does not guarantee above-average snowfall at any particular ski resort.
NOAA’s Temperature Outlook For January–March 2027
NOAA’s seasonal temperature outlook for January, February and March 2027, issued July 16, 2026. Credit: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.
NOAA’s temperature map favors above-normal temperatures across much of the West, northern United States, East Coast and Alaska during January through March 2027.
The strongest warm signals appear across portions of the West, the northern tier, the East and Alaska. A broad section of the central and southern interior United States has lower confidence, with equal chances of above-, near- or below-normal temperatures in some areas.
On the NOAA map:
- A means above-normal temperatures are favored.
- B means below-normal temperatures are favored.
- EC means equal chances of above-, near- or below-normal temperatures.
It is important to understand that “above normal” does not mean every day will be warm. A region can finish the three-month period warmer than average while still experiencing major Arctic outbreaks, cold storms and extended periods of below-freezing weather.
What The Temperature Forecast Means For Skiers
The warmer signal is most concerning for lower-elevation ski areas in Washington, Oregon, coastal British Columbia and the Northeast. Warmer storms increase the risk of rain, mixed precipitation and elevated snow levels.
Higher-elevation resorts are generally better positioned to benefit from moisture during a warmer winter. Resorts such as Mammoth Mountain, Snowbird and Colorado’s highest ski areas may still receive substantial snowfall even when surrounding regions finish warmer than normal.
For the East, warmer seasonal temperatures do not eliminate the possibility of major snowstorms. The greater concern is that thaws or mixed precipitation could interrupt otherwise productive periods.
NOAA’s Precipitation Outlook For January–March 2027
NOAA’s seasonal precipitation outlook for January, February and March 2027, issued July 16, 2026. Credit: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.
The precipitation map displays an even more recognizable El Niño pattern.
NOAA favors above-normal precipitation across much of the southern United States, beginning in Southern California and the Southwest before extending through Texas, the Gulf Coast, Southeast and portions of the eastern United States.
The highest probabilities for above-normal precipitation are centered across portions of the Southeast.
Meanwhile, below-normal precipitation is favored across portions of the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies and northern Plains. Large areas between the wetter southern pattern and drier northern pattern remain under equal chances.
Southern California And The Sierra Nevada
Southern California is included within NOAA’s wetter-than-normal precipitation zone. The wet signal also extends toward portions of the Sierra Nevada and Great Basin.
That could be encouraging for California ski areas, especially higher-elevation destinations. A strong southern storm track can deliver powerful Pacific systems and atmospheric rivers into the state.
The major concern is temperature. A warm atmospheric river may deliver tremendous amounts of precipitation but produce rain or heavy, dense snow at lower elevations. The highest Sierra terrain would have the best chance of converting that moisture into substantial snowfall.
Arizona And New Mexico
Arizona and New Mexico appear to be among the more promising regions in the latest Winter Weather Prediction 2027.
NOAA favors above-normal precipitation across both states, consistent with the typical southern storm track associated with El Niño.
That could benefit high-elevation ski areas such as Arizona Snowbowl, Taos Ski Valley, Ski Santa Fe and Angel Fire. These regions can still experience lengthy dry periods, but several moisture-rich storm cycles could dramatically improve the season.
Utah And Colorado
The wetter southern pattern reaches toward portions of Utah and Colorado, with southern areas generally appearing more favorable than northern ones.
Colorado’s San Juan Mountains could be particularly well positioned if storms repeatedly cross the Four Corners region. Resorts including Wolf Creek, Telluride, Silverton and Purgatory would benefit from that trajectory.
Northern Colorado and northern Utah sit closer to the transition between NOAA’s wet and dry signals. Their winter may depend heavily on the exact position of the Pacific jet stream.
Pacific Northwest And Northern Rockies
The outlook is less encouraging for parts of Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Montana and Wyoming.
NOAA favors below-normal precipitation across portions of the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies and northern Plains. Much of the region also faces increased odds of above-normal temperatures.
That combination could mean fewer sustained storm cycles and higher snow levels, particularly at lower-elevation ski areas.
This is not a prediction of a snowless winter. Resorts such as Mount Baker, Crystal Mountain, Jackson Hole, Grand Targhee, Big Sky and Whitefish can still experience significant powder cycles. The concern is that productive storms may be less frequent or separated by longer dry and mild periods.
Related: The States Most Likely To Win And Lose During A Record El Niño Ski Season
Great Lakes And Northeast
The outlook is more complicated across the Great Lakes and Northeast.
Parts of the Great Lakes sit near NOAA’s drier northern signal, while the Mid-Atlantic and portions of the eastern United States are closer to the wetter southern storm track.
Above-normal temperatures are favored across much of the East. This could increase the frequency of rain or mixed precipitation at lower elevations, but it does not rule out major snowstorms.
A strong southern jet stream can provide moisture for East Coast storms. If enough cold air is available, that moisture can produce a significant nor’easter. Without sustained cold, the same storm track may produce rain along the coast and snow farther inland or at higher elevations.
Does Above-Normal Precipitation Mean More Snow?
Not necessarily.
NOAA’s seasonal precipitation map measures total rain and melted snow. It does not predict how much precipitation will fall as snow.
A ski region could finish wetter than normal while receiving disappointing snowfall if storms are too warm. Conversely, a region with near-normal precipitation could have an excellent ski season if most of its moisture arrives during cold storms.
The most important snowfall variables will include:
- The exact path of the Pacific jet stream
- Snow levels during individual storms
- The availability of Arctic air
- Atmospheric-river temperatures
- Elevation and mountain orientation
- Coastal storm development in the East
- Short-term atmospheric patterns that seasonal models cannot predict
That is why NOAA’s outlook should be viewed as a broad guide rather than a resort-level snow forecast.
Winter Weather Prediction 2027: Regional Summary
Most favorable precipitation signal:
- Southern California
- Arizona
- New Mexico
- Southern Colorado
- Southern Plains
- Gulf Coast
- Southeast
Regions facing a drier signal:
- Pacific Northwest
- Northern Idaho
- Montana
- Northern Wyoming
- Northern Plains
Biggest concern:
Above-normal temperatures could cause higher snow levels and more rain at lower-elevation ski areas.
Biggest opportunity:
High-elevation mountains in California, the Southwest and southern Rockies could benefit from an active southern storm track.
Winter Weather Prediction 2027 FAQ
Will the winter of 2026–2027 be snowy?
Some regions have a better chance than others. NOAA’s outlook favors wetter conditions across the southern United States, including Southern California, Arizona, New Mexico and parts of the southern Rockies. Whether that moisture becomes snow will depend on temperature and elevation.
Will California have a snowy winter in 2027?
California has meaningful upside, especially at higher elevations. Southern California and portions of the state are included within NOAA’s wetter pattern, but warm atmospheric rivers and high snow levels remain possible.
Will El Niño affect winter 2026–2027?
Yes. NOAA expects El Niño to strengthen through the end of 2026 and continue into early spring 2027. It is expected to be one of the dominant influences on the winter storm track.
Which ski regions could struggle?
Parts of the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies face a combination of warmer temperatures and below-normal precipitation. Lower-elevation ski areas may be particularly vulnerable to rain and inconsistent snowpack.
Can NOAA predict individual snowstorms this far in advance?
No. Seasonal forecasts estimate broad temperature and precipitation probabilities over several months. Individual storms cannot be reliably forecast until much closer to their arrival.
The Bottom Line
NOAA’s latest Winter Weather Prediction 2027 points toward a winter strongly influenced by El Niño.
The most favorable precipitation signal stretches across the southern United States, including Southern California, Arizona, New Mexico, the southern Rockies, Texas and the Southeast. Meanwhile, portions of the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies face increased odds of below-normal precipitation.
For skiers, the forecast creates both opportunity and risk. High-elevation resorts in California, the Southwest and southern Colorado could benefit from an active storm track. Lower-elevation mountains and northern ski regions may struggle with warmer temperatures, elevated snow levels or prolonged dry periods.
This remains an early outlook rather than a final snowfall forecast. NOAA will update its seasonal maps every month, and the details should become clearer as the 2026–2027 ski season approaches.
Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Outlooks and the NOAA Long-Lead Seasonal Forecast Discussion.