Seasonal forecast models are raising red flags about the summer of 2026, and meteorologists are paying close attention to a pattern that has all the ingredients for a brutal stretch of heat across much of the United States. The signals emerging from long-range outlooks suggest the central and southern Plains could be in for a punishing few months. Weather with Travis took a look at what this could all mean, comparing it specifically to the devastating summer of 1936.
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts is picking up on a large upper-level ridge building over the southern United States, particularly through July. That kind of atmospheric dome traps heat, suppresses storm activity, and allows temperatures to climb well above normal for extended periods. August models show more of the same across the West and central United States.
Exceptional drought is already developing across the Southeast, from Virginia through Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina. The West is critically dry as well. Dried-out soil removes a natural cooling mechanism from the atmosphere. Without ground moisture, solar energy that would normally drive evaporation instead stays at the surface, amplifying heat and creating a feedback loop that pushes temperatures even higher.
A developing El Nino adds another variable to watch. Warm water is building in the eastern Pacific after a prolonged La Nina period, and a strengthening El Nino typically brings increased cloud cover and a more active subtropical jet stream to the southern United States. That could mean a somewhat cooler and stormier fall and winter across the South, but for the summer months, its influence on the heat pattern is less clear.
The short-term picture shows a warm end to May and a warm start to June across much of the country. The Northeast may see relatively near-normal temperatures into early summer, but the central United States looks increasingly hot as the season progresses.
