Tomorrow is the official start of winter. Many of us have already experienced some seriously cold temperatures and some large snowfalls, but the coldest months are still ahead of us. It’s impossible to know for sure exactly what this winter will look like, especially what February, March, and April will look like. But the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center can still make some predictions, and they’ve just released their newest.
For the three previously mentioned months, the NWS has released both a seasonal temperature outlook and a seasonal precipitation outlook for the United States. Personally I’m a fan of cold late winters, but the outlook doesn’t seem to be pointing that way for much of the country.
In the furthest south portions of the U.S., there’s a 50-60% chance that temperatures will be above average through February, March, and April, while slightly north and along much of the east, including all of New England, there’s a 40-50% chance of temperatures being above normal.
Far in the Northwestern corner of the country, including much of Washington and northern Idaho and Montana, there’s a 40-50% of temperatures sitting below normal. Slightly south of that area, including much of Oregon, central Idaho, the southern half of Montana, northern Wyoming, and the Dakotas, there’s a 33-40% chance of temperatures sitting below normal.
The seasonal precipitation outlook for February, March, and April looks quite a bit different. In the southwest United States, including in parts of Texas, New Mexico, and Arizona, and in Florida and the eastern portion of South Carolina, there’s a 40-50% chance of below normal precipitation. North of that band, including through much of Colorado, Utah, Kansas, Oklahoma, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and more, there’s a 33-40% chance of below normal precipitation.
In a chunk of New England, southern New York, Pennsylvania, and dipping towards the south, there’s a 33-40% chance of above normal precipitation throughout the three months, while some portions closer to the Great Lakes have a 40-50% chance of above normal precipitation. Meanwhile, in the far northwest portion of the country, Washington and northern Idaho sit in that 40-50% chance of above normal range, while just south and east of there sits in the 33-40% chance of above normal range.
