In today’s weather forecast video from Direct Weather, we’re diving into an extended period of severe cold and a potential major snowstorm. With a positive PNA out west and the AO and NAO expected to spike negative, we’re locked into a frigid pattern for weeks. The National Weather Service and Climate Prediction Center are signaling strong chances of temperatures far below normal.
Starting with Sunday afternoon, light snowfall is developing in the West due to a dip in the jet stream. Meanwhile, the East is briefly enjoying a mild spell, with temperatures in the 50s and 60s—slightly above normal. However, this transitional period will lead to a more significant cooldown. By Monday, November 25th, a weak low over the Great Lakes will bring scattered rain and snow showers. As we move to Tuesday and Wednesday, colder air will begin pouring into the East, aided by a trough while milder conditions settle into the West.
Heading toward Thanksgiving, two key features emerge: a stronger low over New Mexico, delivering snow to the southern Rockies, and a low over the southern Hudson Bay. The latter signals cold air advancing into the East. By Friday, Black Friday, a powerful low near Maryland will spread snow across the Appalachian region and the Northeast. This includes areas like the Berkshires, Adirondacks, and northern Maine, which could see heavy snowfall. At the same time, the jet stream will plunge south, ushering in Arctic air for much of the East.
Saturday through early December marks the core of this cold wave. Many regions will experience temperatures 10–20°F below average, with widespread subfreezing days. Lake-effect snow will likely intensify, especially in areas surrounding the Great Lakes. As December begins, the cold persists across the East, with snow showers and brutal Arctic air dominating for several days.
Looking at December 5th and beyond, the pattern shows signs of repeating. A positive PNA remains entrenched, allowing another wave of frigid air to sweep into the East. This second cooldown, while slightly less extreme than the first, will still bring significant cold and lake-effect snow. By mid-December, the potential for below-average temperatures continues, with the Climate Prediction Center highlighting this trend in its outlooks.
Both the GFS and European weather models confirm this setup, though they differ slightly in their storm placements. The GFS tends to push systems further south, while the European model brings them farther north. Regardless, both agree on heavy snowfall across the Ohio Valley, Northeast, and areas near the Great Lakes. Some regions could see snowfall totals exceeding 30 inches due to prolonged lake-effect events.
Precipitation will also be above average in the East, while the West sees more moderate snowfall, especially in higher elevations like the Sierra Nevadas. These patterns underscore the importance of elevation in determining snow accumulation, regardless of broader temperature trends.
In summary, the East faces weeks of potentially severe cold and significant snowfall as the jet stream favors a deep trough in the region. With Arctic air entrenched and a steady flow of snowstorms, the start of winter promises to be intense. Be sure to subscribe for daily updates, hit the bell for notifications, and stay tuned for the latest developments. Leave a comment below and share your thoughts!