NOAA forecasts a very high likelihood of a La Niña event for the early part of winter 2022/23.
In a blog post made just a few days ago, Emily Becker, the lead writer for NOAA climate.gov’s ENSO Blog, said that NOAA is so confident in the prediction because La Niña is already clearly in force in the tropical Pacific. Emily goes on the say that, “There is a substantial amount of cooler-than-average water under the surface of the eastern-central tropical Pacific. This subsurface water will provide a source of cooler water to the surface over the next couple of months.”
If NOAA’s prediction rings true the 2022/23 winter will be the third consecutive winter with La Niña conditions.
But how long will it last?
La Niña conditions tend to be great news for ski areas in the northern region of North America while other areas in the South have experienced long dry winters during a La Niña. So will La Niña conditions last all winter? NOAA is not so sure. The post says, “While there’s high agreement through the winter, there is a lot of uncertainty about how long this La Niña will last and when we will see a transition to neutral conditions. Current forecaster consensus gives La Niña the edge through January–March (54%), with a 56% chance of neutral for the February–April period.”
So basically it’s a coin flip after January.