NOAA's Official 2016-2017 Winter Weather Forecast

First La Niña was in, then La Niña was out, and now she’s come back to the party according to NOAA.

So in order to keep their outlook / forecasts uniform, NOAA just released an updated winter weather outlook that’s not only more accurate but focuses on the northern rockies seeing a cold and snowy conditions throughout the 2016-2017 winter season.

“Regardless of the outlook, there is always some chance for extreme winter weather, so prepare now for what might come later this winter.” – Mike Halpert, deputy director, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center

The forecast is largely based on new ENSO predictions that put this particular La Nina as brief and weak. Still, that slight change could tip the scales in favor of the northern rockies including Schweitzer, Sun Valley, Big Sky, Whitefish, and Jackson Hole.

*Photo Credit: Barclay Idsal/Unofficial Networks*

LET IT SNOW!

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Precipitation

Wetter than normal conditions are most likely in the northern Rockies, around the Great Lakes, in Hawaii and in western Alaska

Drier than normal conditions are most likely across the entire southern U.S. and southern Alaska.

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Temperature

Warmer than normal conditions are most likely across the southern U.S., extending northward through the central Rockies, in Hawaii, in western and northern Alaska and in northern New England.

Cooler conditions are most likely across the northern tier from Montana to western Michigan.
The rest of the country falls into the “equal chance” category, meaning that there is not a strong enough climate signal in these areas to shift the odds, so they have an equal chance for above-, near-, or below-normal temperatures and/or precipitation.

NOAA Press release

Forecasters at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center issued the U.S. Winter Outlook today, saying that La Nina is expected to influence winter conditions this year. The Climate Prediction Center issued a La Nina watch this month, predicting the climate phenomenon is likely to develop in late fall or early winter. La Nina favors drier, warmer winters in the southern U.S and wetter, cooler conditions in the northern U.S. Read the whole press release.

Maps

Clicking on the maps will show a larger version that includes Alaska and Hawaii.

Temperature Outlook

Outlook for average winter temperature across the United States for December 2016-February 2017. Anywhere in the United States, there is always a chance that the average winter temperature will be near average, well above average, or well below average. White areas show places where the odds for all three possible outcomes are equal (33%). Colored areas show where—and by how much—the odds favor well above average (reds) or well below average (blues) temperatures. “Well above” and “well below” mean “in the upper or lower third of the climatological record.” NOAA Climate.gov map based on NWS Climate Prediction Center data.

Precipitation Outlook

Outlook for average winter precipitation the United States for December 2016-February 2017. Anywhere in the United States, there is always a chance that the average winter precipitation will be near average, well above average, or well below average. White areas show places where the odds for all three possible outcomes are equal (33%). Colored areas show where—and by how much—the odds favor well above average (reds) or well below average (blues) temperatures. “Well above” and “well below” mean “in the upper or lower third of the climatological record.” NOAA Climate.gov map based on NWS Climate Prediction Center data.

Drought Outlook

Drought outlook for the 2016-2017 winter (December-February) in the United States. NOAA Climate.gov map based on NWS Climate Prediction Center data.

Tropical Pacific sea surface temperature patterns

Sea surface temperature anomalies in the Pacific Ocean

Difference from average sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean in late September 2016, from the animation sequence in the 2016-17 Winter outlook video above. The frames for the entire sequence are available as a zip file. Each image represents the average anomaly for the previous seven days, inclusive of the day indicated in the time stamp in the image name. For example, the file with 20160807 in the name is the seven-day average of the data from August 1-7. NOAA Climate.gov map based on OISST daily data.