It’s time for the Friday powder alert to talk about who is going to get the next big snow. Right now things are very quiet across the country. Look at the current radar showing just some light snow in the mid-west, but nothing in any of the mountains. The Green and White mountains in New England may get a little dusting as this moves East today and Saturday.
Even as we go through the weekend it is exceptionally quiet as the ridge off the West Coast blocks the storms from the U.S. It is not all that often that you see a NWS map with no winter weather advisories on it this time of year.
In a La Nina Winter the Pacific NW will usually get the most precip with the Southwest having a dry and below average snow year. Well we aren’t into the true Winter yet so the pattern across the Pacific has not setup into a normal La Nina pattern. We have had several splitting storms with lows breaking off and spinning down the West coast this Fall before coming inland over Southern CA and into the Southwest. This has allowed the Southwest to get an early jump on a Winter that shouldn’t really be a big snow producer that far South.
We have another scenario that is going to play out this weekend as a cold trough dives down the West Coast and a low splits off and spins down off the coast of CA. That low will have plenty of cold air and as it comes inland over Southern CA on Monday it will bring a nice dumping of snow to the resorts in the Big Bear Lake area. The forecast models disagree a little with the total amount of snow that will fall based on the exact track, but it looks like anywhere from 6-18 inches is the call right now. Here is the total precip map through next Wednesday.
As you can see Mammoth could pick up a few inches on the North edge of the storm, and then Tuesday it moves into Arizona and New Mexico. The same areas that picked up snow this time last week will get it again on Tuesday and Wednesday with Flagstaff and Taos possibly picking up several inches, and we could see another foot near Teluride and Silverton.
We will continue to watch this storm as it develops and then tracks inland next week. This is where the action will be for now. Things could pick up for the Pacific NW and the Northeast towards the end of next week. BA