A potentially record-breaking El Niño is forming in the equatorial Pacific, and climate models suggest the winter of 2026 into 2027 could be one of the wetter and more active on record for large portions of the United States. JustWeather took a look at what this huge El Niño will mean for the country.
The European ensemble model shows sea surface temperature anomalies off the coast of Peru tracking above 3 degrees Celsius above normal. The strongest El Niño on record, which peaked in 2015 and 2016, reached only 2.75 degrees Celsius above normal. Subsurface ocean temperatures are running 5 to 6 degrees above normal roughly 100 meters below the surface, and that heat is steadily rising toward the surface. Forecasters say the signal has not only held steady over the past six months but has intensified with each new model run.
For the winter ahead, a strong El Niño typically supercharges the subtropical jet stream, pumping moisture from the Pacific into California, across the southern plains, through the desert southwest, and into the Gulf Coast and Florida. Long-range climate models are already showing unusually strong signals for above-normal precipitation in those regions beginning in December 2026, with the pattern amplifying through January 2027.
Florida and the extreme southeast face a particularly notable outlook. During strong El Niño winters, that region historically sees elevated severe weather risk from November through early March. California is also projected to receive well-above-normal rainfall, as is much of the southern tier of the country.
The flip side of that pattern brings drier conditions to the Pacific Northwest and parts of the Appalachians, also consistent with classic El Niño climatology. Of course long-range forecasts carry significant uncertainty, but note that this particular signal is unusually strong for how far out it extends.
