Direct Weather has released an updated snowfall forecast for the 2026-27 winter, significantly changing its outlook for several regions of the United States. The latest forecast increases confidence in above-average snowfall across much of the West, particularly the Pacific Northwest and Sierra Nevada, while lowering expectations for parts of the East Coast.
The updated outlook comes as a historically strong El Niño continues to influence long-range weather projections. Direct Weather also adjusted its precipitation and temperature forecasts, citing recent weather patterns that could make this winter less predictable than initially expected.
Pacific Northwest And Northern Rockies
One of the biggest changes involves the Pacific Northwest, which has shifted from a below-average snowfall outlook to an above-average snowfall outlook. Direct Weather now expects Washington and Oregon to experience a stormier pattern, with increasing confidence that precipitation could reach or exceed normal levels.
The forecast also favors above-average snowfall chances farther inland, extending into portions of the northern Rockies. Although temperatures could average slightly above normal, periods of colder weather combined with frequent storms could still produce significant mountain snowfall.
California And The Southwest
The Southwest remains one of the strongest areas in Direct Weather’s forecast. Strong El Niño patterns historically favor substantial snowfall across this region, and the latest outlook maintains high confidence in above-average snowfall.
California, Nevada, and Arizona are particularly notable, with the Sierra Nevada receiving the highest confidence rating on Direct Weather’s five-level scale. The forecaster suggests parts of the Sierra Nevada could experience a historic snowfall season. Frequent storms and periods of colder weather could create excellent opportunities for skiing and snowboarding across the region.
Central United States And Great Lakes
The northern Plains, Upper Midwest, and Great Lakes region continue to lean toward below-average snowfall. Direct Weather has maintained this portion of its forecast despite some recent storms bringing more precipitation into the area than anticipated.
However, confidence in a traditional El Niño winter pattern has declined. The forecaster noted that this fall has not behaved like a typical strong El Niño, making long-range predictions particularly challenging. Another update could bring changes if the recent storm activity continues.
Southeast, Mid-Atlantic And Northeast
The East Coast outlook has become less bullish, with Direct Weather reducing its confidence in widespread above-average snowfall. The forecaster still expects opportunities for nor’easters, but no longer anticipates as many major coastal storms as initially projected.
The Southeast and Deep South have gained some confidence for above-average snowfall chances, partly because of potential southern-tracking storms. These systems could bring snow to areas that typically receive very little.
New England, particularly eastern New England, remains a more promising area for snowfall. The region’s position along the coastline could allow it to benefit from storms that miss portions of the Mid-Atlantic.
Arctic Cold Could Change The Winter
Temperature expectations have also become more interesting. Direct Weather anticipates a relatively mild Pacific influence across the Northwest and northern Plains, but signals for Arctic air and a potential polar vortex disruption have increased confidence in a colder-than-expected start to December. February and March remain important periods to watch for Arctic cold, although a sudden stratospheric warming event could bring colder conditions earlier.
