New seasonal forecasts suggest an active storm track could shape winter 2026-27 across North America, with repeated storms targeting the West and increased precipitation potential across the southern United States. In his latest winter weather update, Weather With Travis examined the latest NOAA Climate Prediction Center outlooks and long-range models to explain how El Niño and Pacific Ocean temperatures could influence the season ahead.
NOAA Forecast Shows a Wetter Southern Tier
The Climate Prediction Center released updated monthly and seasonal outlooks on October 15th, highlighting an increasingly familiar El Niño pattern. The November outlook favors above-average temperatures across parts of Canada, particularly the Northwest and Great Lakes regions, while much of the southern United States has more balanced temperature probabilities.
Precipitation forecasts show a different picture. The Southeast is favored to receive above-average precipitation, while parts of the Northwest and Great Lakes region lean toward drier-than-average conditions. Similar patterns appear in the November through January seasonal outlook.
For skiers and snowboarders, the outlook raises questions about where the most consistent snowfall could develop as winter progresses.
Pacific Ocean Temperatures Could Fuel Major Storms
Travis pointed to the negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, a long-term pattern of Pacific Ocean temperature variations, as another important factor heading into winter.
He noted that unusually warm water across the North Pacific has coincided with a pattern of deep low-pressure systems developing near Alaska. These systems can push warmer air northward while influencing downstream weather patterns across North America.
Combined with El Niño, which typically strengthens the subtropical jet stream, this setup could support an active storm track and repeated precipitation events across parts of the West and southern United States.
Long-Range Models Show Potential for Winter Storms
Some extended-range models depict repeated storm systems moving toward California before traveling inland and potentially interacting with moisture-rich Pacific air and the subtropical jet stream.
Forecasts extending into January, February, and March also suggest the possibility of additional storm activity. However, these projections remain highly uncertain, particularly at such long lead times.
Travis also discussed the potential for periods of colder weather to reach the central and eastern United States if atmospheric blocking develops in a favorable position.
The emerging pattern does not guarantee a cold winter or widespread heavy snowfall. However, the combination of El Niño and persistent Pacific storm activity will be worth watching as the season approaches, particularly for Western ski resorts hoping for a productive winter.
