AccuWeather has released its outlook for the 2026-2027 winter season, with a powerful El Niño expected to influence storm tracks, snowfall, and temperatures across the United States. The forecast calls for wetter conditions and potentially significant storms across parts of the southern United States, while several northern cities could experience below-average snowfall and warmer-than-normal temperatures.
AccuWeather lead long-range forecaster Paul Pastelok said the expected El Niño could rank among the strongest in many years. While the climate pattern typically shifts winter precipitation toward the southern United States, the forecast also highlights opportunities for snow across parts of the central Plains and the Northeast.
Southwest and Western United States Could See Major Storms
The Southwest and broader western United States are among the regions AccuWeather expects to experience wetter weather as the strong El Niño influences winter storm patterns.
Pastelok warned that the combination of stronger storms and increased moisture could create significant flooding concerns across parts of the region. While additional precipitation could bring beneficial mountain snowfall in colder areas, warmer temperatures could complicate snow conditions at lower elevations.
Ski resorts across the West will be watching closely to see how storm tracks and freezing levels influence snowfall throughout the season.
Midwest and Great Lakes Face Below-Average Snowfall
Chicago, Detroit, and Minneapolis are among the cities AccuWeather expects could finish the winter with below-average snowfall.
The forecast also points to the potential for unusually warm conditions across the Midwest and Great Lakes, with December standing out as a period when record-high temperatures could develop.
For ski areas in the northern United States, warmer temperatures and fewer major snowstorms could create challenges for maintaining consistent winter conditions.
However, Pastelok noted that the season may not follow the typical El Niño pattern in every region.
Plains Could See Midwinter Snowstorms
Parts of the central Plains and High Plains could experience a storm track favorable for snowfall during the middle to latter portion of winter.
Such a pattern could bring meaningful snow events to areas that might otherwise miss out on the season’s larger systems. The timing and exact location of these storms will be important for determining their eventual impacts.
Northeast and Southeast Face Different Winter Risks
The Northeast could see limited opportunities for sustained cold, but AccuWeather warned that one major storm in late January or February could still deliver significant snowfall.
Meanwhile, the Southeast faces the potential for wetter weather and flooding. Pastelok also emphasized that severe thunderstorms remain possible during winter across areas stretching from Texas through the Southeast and into the Mid-Atlantic.
