NOAA has released an updated forecast for the upcoming fall, with above-normal temperatures favored across much of the United States and above-normal precipitation expected across portions of the Southwest and southern Plains.
The Climate Prediction Center released the updated October through December 2026 outlook on September 17th, providing a broad look at temperature and precipitation trends for the heart of the fall season. The forecast comes as a strong El Niño continues to influence the weather pattern across North America.
Warm Fall Favored Across Much Of The Country
NOAA’s temperature outlook favors above-normal temperatures across much of the West, northern United States and East.
The strongest signals are found across parts of the northern Rockies, Great Basin, northern Plains and Alaska. Warmer-than-normal conditions are also favored across much of the country east of the Mississippi River.
More uncertainty exists across the southern Rockies and southern Plains, where NOAA shows equal chances for above-normal, near-normal or below-normal temperatures.
For skiers, the warmer pattern could make elevation particularly important as ski resorts begin opening. Areas such as Loveland Ski Area, Arapahoe Basin and Mammoth Mountain can still receive early-season snow during a warm fall, particularly at higher elevations.
Wetter Conditions Favored Across The Southwest
NOAA’s precipitation outlook shows a notable wetter signal across the southern United States.
Above-normal precipitation is favored from southern California across the Four Corners and southern Plains, with the wetter pattern extending eastward into the Mississippi Valley, Southeast and Mid-Atlantic.
That puts several important ski regions in an area favored for above-normal precipitation during the fall. Resorts including Taos Ski Valley, Wolf Creek and Telluride could benefit from individual cold storms if temperatures are sufficiently low for snow.
The precipitation forecast does not guarantee additional snowfall at ski resorts. Storm temperatures and snow levels will determine whether incoming moisture falls as rain or snow.
El Niño Remains A Major Factor
The latest outlook comes as El Niño continues to strengthen in the Pacific.
NOAA currently gives greater than a 90 percent chance of El Niño continuing through the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter. The agency’s outlook also shows a 75 percent chance of a historic-strength El Niño during October through December.
The fall forecast reflects some of the typical precipitation patterns associated with strong El Niño events, particularly across the southern United States.
For skiers and snowboarders, the September 17th outlook provides an early indication of the environment that could develop as resorts begin building their snowpack. However seasonal forecasts cannot predict individual storms or snowfall totals.
NOAA’s next seasonal outlook is scheduled for October 15th, providing another update as the 2026–27 ski season approaches.
