Winter Storm for Thanksgiving

Thanksgiving snowstorm

A prolonged Arctic air pattern is set to bring weeks of frigid temperatures and multiple snow events across the U.S., starting with a Thanksgiving snowstorm impacting the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Lake-effect snowfall will dominate the Great Lakes region through early December, with accumulations reaching 2-5 feet in some areas. A positive Pacific-North American (PNA) pattern sustains the cold, driven by a neutral ENSO phase. Weather models, including GFS and European, align on a snowy, brutally cold outlook, with potential additional storms in mid-December.

Arctic Air and Prolonged Cold Pattern

  • Severe Arctic air is moving in, potentially lasting for weeks with very cold temperatures.
  • Multiple snow chances, starting Thanksgiving into Black Friday.

Snowfall Outlook

  • Tuesday, Nov 26th: Mountainous snow in the Sierra Nevada and Southern Rockies due to a southern flow pattern.
  • Wednesday, Nov 27th: Low pressure forms over Southern Plains, leading to potential snowstorm in Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.
  • Thursday, Nov 28th (Thanksgiving): Snow impacts northern Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and southern New York/New England.
  • Friday, Nov 29th – Dec 3rd: Prolonged lake-effect snowfall with heavy accumulation over Great Lakes region.

Cold Weather Breakdown

  • Arctic air pushes eastward starting Wednesday, Nov 27th, and deepens through the weekend.
  • Temperatures:
    • Greens: 10-15°F below normal.
    • Blues: 1-10°F below normal.
    • Purples: 15-25°F below normal.
    • Magentas: Over 25°F below normal (Montana/North Dakota).
  • Early December: Persistent cold air dominates eastern U.S. with continued lake-effect snow.
  • Snowstorms predicted to intensify in Northeast and Midwest.
  • Additional snow chances for Plains, Rockies, and Midwest later in December.

Model Comparisons

  • GFS vs. European Model:
    • GFS historically places storms too far southeast; European model has been more accurate for this system.
    • Models suggest continued cold and snowy conditions into mid-December.

Impactful Weather Patterns

  • Positive Pacific-North American (PNA) pattern sustains Arctic air over the East and a ridge over the West.
  • Neutral ENSO phase favors cold and snowy conditions, contrasting with La Niña expectations.

Key Snowfall Areas

  • Great Lakes Region: Lake-effect snow to bring 2-5 feet in some areas.
  • Mid-Atlantic and Northeast: Moderate to heavy snow likely, especially in higher elevations.
  • Southern Rockies: Above-average snowfall expected.

Viewer Engagement

  • Encouragement to subscribe, like, and comment for daily updates.
  • Emphasis on consistent forecasts as models remain stable.

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