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Models Show TWO Potential Upcoming Snowstorms…
Thu, 02/15 15:42PM · 15mins
In today’s video we’re going to be talking about a pretty major mid -Atlantic snowstorm, even the southern mid -Atlantic getting involved. We’re going to be talking about states like West Virginia, Virginia, Delaware, Maryland, D .C., Pennsylvania, and even New Jersey with this one.
So definitely something we’re keeping an eye on as some severe Arctic air works its way southward. And then we see a southern slider type storm work its way in. We also have some exciting stuff today.
We’re going to be taking a look at some advancements in AI weather modeling. So we’re going to take a look into that. We’re taking a look at the overall pattern as a whole. As we do expect cold air for at least about 10 more days and some more snowfall opportunities in there also.
Let’s dive into things I know that’s a whole lot and it’s going to be a bigger video. I’m pretty sure of it. Let’s take this towards tomorrow on Thursday the 15th. And what we see is a northeast snowstorm on the way impacting the Great Lakes now, but that will move down into the northeast and bring snowfall to some of these areas that have already seen snowfall with our previous snowstorm.
Meanwhile, we have a snow event happening out west for the Cascade Mountains, the Sierra Nevada Mountains, and even into the Northern Rockies. As we take this towards Friday, we’re going to take a look at Thursday into Friday here actually Saturday or better yet 2 a .m. on Friday here. What we see is a 998 millibar low pressure center sitting over the Adirondack Mountains there in New York. And what this is causing is light to moderate snowfall pretty widespread throughout northern Pennsylvania into New York and into New England.
Direct Weather: Models Show TWO Potential Snowstorms
Meanwhile, we have a lot of cold air diving southward. So we’re going to see things get colder and colder and colder. Here comes that southern slider. This is by Friday afternoon on February 16th. What we see is some pretty warm air, some higher pressure out here for the west.
And that’s going to be indicative of a positive P &A. What this does is it causes warm air to surge northward within this area, causing all of the cold air that would be over western Canada to basically move eastward.
Meanwhile, have the eastern Canada area, the normal cold air, so what we’re doing is overflowing with cold air here and this is causing this to have to basically expand southward and that’s why we get these deep arctic blasts, unseasonable arctic blasts I would say in the eastern states.
Either way, we have our kind of southern slider storm taking place and we see Missouri into Illinois and into Indiana seeing light to moderate snowfall here. By the time we are reaching towards Saturday morning timeframe, this will be approximately about 5am, we have a low located over northeast North Carolina and this is bringing snowfall to West Virginia, Virginia, DC, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Delaware and New Jersey there, so definitely a pretty impactful system for the southern mid -Atlantic like I said and really what makes this all possible is how far southward that jet stream is dipping.
I mean if you have the jet stream here and you have a storm riding along it. We’re looking at a very, very far south storm that’s going to bring snowfall further south than we’ve seen all season long and really further south than we typically see it for the most part.
And what we’re left with is a very, very cold day on Saturday the 17th here in the east. Same story for Sunday, but it is moving out as we have this warmth kind of expanding towards the central states.
This is forcing a lot of the cold air to move basically up into the northeast and into eastern Canada as well. By the time we’re taking a look at Monday on the 19th, it’s a lot more mild. And matter of fact, we actually have some storms moving on towards the west, bringing some colder air with them, bringing snowfall to the Cascades and the Sierra Nevada again.
And really what this is indicating is a negative P &A trying to take place here. And as you can see, the second this western pattern flips here, we see a massive flip in the eastern pattern as we have this warm air trying to intrude.
Colder air diving southward over the west and overall low pressure sitting around this area. The opposite is true in the east, we see warmer and drier conditions here. So definitely that western impact leads to impacts downstream.
This is classic and happens time and time again. We don’t really get much action until about the kind of 20 second time frame. This is when we have a pretty major storm system along the eastern seaboard here.
Take this one with a grain of salt as it is very far out. However, we do see colder air diving in behind it as this low has a cold front underneath so it’s dragging the cold air down with it. We have milder temperatures for the southwest, which is kind of like a partial positive P &A, I would say it’s definitely assisting in this cold air entering into the central and eastern states.
And this fully takes place by time we’re taking a look at Friday morning, where we have cold air diving southward in the east. Once again, a low pressure system near New England and heavy heavy snowfall throughout portions of the mid -Atlantic.
and the northeast. That all comes to an end. We see again the warm air expanding eastward once again and likely we’re going to see this cold air move out once again for the end of February time frame.
So we’re seeing kind of a revolving door pattern where the warmth starts out here in the west, the cold air dives into the east, the cold air eventually moves up into Canada as this warm air expands eastward, which allows for cold air to move back into the west, which eventually moves into the east as warm air takes place out west and you can see how that becomes a cycle very, very quickly.
Now the GFS model, let’s take a look at it and we get an identical picture here for this mid -Atlantic snowstorm. So we’re going to move right past it. We do get this warm up partially up until the 22nd and then we do get that return cool down and we also get this snowstorm in the northeast just like we saw in the European model.
Looks a little bit different, but it’s certainly there. And as we move on, we get kind of a warmer pattern with some cold shots. There’s another one around the 26th, 27th, 30th. time frame with more coastal energy.
This is going to put the Ohio Valley into the Middle East on high alert for potential more snow storms on the way. That actually becomes a pretty major over time. Eventually moving out and what we’re left with here is very interesting on March 1st.
We’re going to see colder air trending in for the west. This is why we’re seeing snowfall up and down the Sierra Nevada mountains and also the southern Rockies. We also have a storm across the plains with a strong cold front here, a warm front up to the north.
Warm air surging northward to the east of that with the cold air hitting it from the side. This looks like a classic kind of severe weather outbreak to me throughout Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Kansas, up through Iowa, Illinois, Tennessee, and Mississippi.
Take it with a grain of salt though. This is 384 hours out. Interesting to see these models starting to suggest more spring like storms in the long range. Perhaps a sign that March is going to be very spring like as opposed to winter like.
That’s going to be something to watch for very, very closely. Here is that kind of AI model I talked about. It’s called Spire Weather. Trust me, this isn’t a sponsor, but I’m about to talk about how cool it is.
But definitely, I have not been in contact with anybody from Spire Weather. I just think it’s a cool project and I wanted to share it because it popped up on WeatherBell, which as you guys know, I use a lot.
I looked up their website. You can look it up. I think it’s spireweather .com. I just searched up Spire Weather and found it. They’re inventing this new model that uses satellite imagery and also AI -powered algorithms to do machine learning within the models as far as I understand it, which is extremely cool.
I’m going to be tracking this project over the coming years to see if we see improvements. Your typical models like your GFS and the European model, they’re not up to date. They’re not evolving themselves with changes.
But if you install this AI -powered system, you can see that it’s not just a model. algorithm into your model to where it’s gonna take what happened compared to what it forecasted, realize what went wrong, and then correct it and update itself.
I mean, the sky is the limit with how accurate these models can become, and that’s kind of what I’ve been alluding to over the past couple of days, and that’s why I wanted to include this segment here with the Spire Weather model.
So, a super cool project. I’m looking forward to it. I also know of another project. I believe it’s called Stormworn. I kind of forget what it’s called. I’ll let you guys know soon, but I have a friend that’s actually running this model and it’s been shown on the news.
He’s actually compared it to the National Weather Service’s ability to put out tornado warnings, and it’s actually coming in more accurate than what they’re doing as far as being able to produce those tornado warnings earlier with model guidance as opposed to just radar -indicated rotation.
So, definitely a very interesting project there. This model is a lot closer to the NAMM 12KM model as far as the resolution. My friends model that I’m talking about is a higher resolution, more pinpoint down to the county level, down to the town level type model that’s gonna give that really, really micro scale resolution forecast.
So definitely some cool projects out there. I think AI is gonna become a big part of these weather models. And again, with that learning element of it being able to kind of identify the issue, update itself, do better next time.
I mean, you repeat that, repeat that, repeat that over years and I mean, how good can these things become? It’s a big question. Definitely has me very, very curious. Let’s watch the model run here with this particular model and it only runs on 12 hour increments.
So that’s why it seems so low frame rate really coming in but it’s because it’s jumping from 12 hour period to the next one. I’m sure they will add more later on. We’ll see obviously. But this storm looks almost identical to the European model and GFS model.
So definitely not seeing much interesting stuff there. We do get that warm up and eventually we get that cold shot once again with the snowstorm over the Northeast. So not only are our European model and our GFS model showing this but now our Spire weather model, the AI powered one is also showing this with that cold air moving in.
So will this be a learning experience for this model or will it be accurate? Well, time will only tell. So we’ll be tracking it closely. Just wanted to include that little segment there. Let’s move on to our typical stuff here.
We have that precipitation forecast for the West and really, I mean, we’re looking at a ton for the West Coast up and down through the Northwest and Southwest. And then we’re getting a pretty sizable amount here for the Rockies as well.
So I expect big time snow totals once we’re taking a look at the total snowfall in a minute. We do have a really, really strong Southern flow but you can see it’s moving across the Gulf and offshore of the Southeast.
So this isn’t really impacting the continental United States too much outside of Florida, which as you can see, I mean, we all know this but it jets down. down into the Gulf of Mexico. So Florida’s just kind of in the way there.
But we can see that there is a pretty average amount of precipitation through the Ohio Valley up the mid -Atlantic and into the Northeast. This will be enough in a colder pattern like the one we’re seeing here to produce above average snowfall amounts.
Because obviously the average precipitation is a lot of rain and a bit of snow in there, but with the colder temperatures, you’re seeing a lot more snow with that average amount of precipitation. So you end up with above average amounts of snow due to the temperatures, not the amount of precipitation.
Now, once we take a look at the total snowfall here, I mean, tons out west, like I mentioned, including the Cascades, Sierra Nevada, and the Rockies here, no surprise. We get a lot of southern snowfall here throughout the southern Ohio Valley and into the southern mid -Atlantic with that potential pretty major snowfall.
Southern slider for these areas, it’s all relative, right? But we talked about this yesterday for these areas in particular, especially east of the Appalachian Mountains for Central Virginia and into the Del Marva.
This is on the little bit of a more major side, especially as you reach into Central Virginia where, you know, two to four inches is definitely stopping school buses. It’s definitely creating some pretty hazardous impacts for those areas because of the the preparations and you know, the lack thereof, I guess.
And and just overall, you know, the people not being used to driving in the snow at all. As we work our way into the Great Lakes, we see an average to slightly above average amount of snowfall. Same thing for the interior northeast here, but on this model, we don’t get too much along the coast here.
So these same areas, it’s all the most snowfall with our previous snowstorm are getting almost none over the next 10 days. The GFS model here, we get a lot out west, same as the European. And again, we get this kind of two to four inch event there for the Mid -Atlantic in Ohio Valley.
And then we get a bit more here across the Midwest and the Northeast. This model runs the 15 days. So we’re likely just getting more snowfall because there’s more days here, not because it’s actually showing heavier amounts.
The overall temperature pattern, as we take a look at it, we’re seeing that cool down around the 18th here. That moves out. We get warmer temperatures overall. Again with the cold moving into the west.
So this is more of what we’re seeing here by this point with the warmth surging around that into the east. Definitely very interesting. As we keep going, though, we get a pretty strong Arctic blast around the 23rd, 24th time frame, followed up by more warmth with returning cold and activity out west.
Again, a negative P &A pattern, warmth surging northward for the central and eastern states. As we keep going, that basically stays the same through the end of February here. So definitely looking at that pattern change to likely occur around that 25th time frame, maybe 26th here.
When we see this warmth, pretty much want to sit still in the east and cold return to the west alongside activity. And, guys, thank you so much for watching this very long, detailed video. I think that we went over some extra things here as well as kind of our full typical stuff that we do.
This has been a fun one for me. I hope you guys enjoyed it. So be sure to subscribe. We do upload every single day. We’re going to be updating you guys on all of these things. You can even hit the bell icon for daily notifications when we upload.
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