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Models Showing Multiple Potential Snowstorms
Wed, 02/14 13:42PM · 15mins
We’re going to be diving into it in the total snowfall, total precipitation, as well as the temperature pattern upcoming. So let’s walk through the European model real quickly here. We see the remnants of our snowstorm, which again, I mean, I can’t apologize enough for just the mishap that the models had on this one.
Obviously, I have my weather consulting company as well, and we have big problems there, obviously, with these models shifting. We talked about how the National Weather Service shifted their forecast so far south within 12 hours of the onset of snowfall that Boston and areas north of there went from expecting, you know, maybe 12 to 14 inches of snowfall down to six inches or less.
And one update from the National Weather Service, I mean, it was crazy, crazy, crazy. I mean, can’t believe that. And we’ve only seen it a couple of times happen. It was either Winter Storm, Juneau or Nemo.
I forget which one of those it was about 10 years ago where we saw the southern regions of that one really get cut off. I think Eastern Pennsylvania into a lot of New Jersey was expecting like a foot, the two feet of snowfall, maybe even more.
And it went down to almost nothing where they got about maybe four to six inches of snowfall. So that’s the only example I can think of that was as big or if not bigger, a failure. But these models have been progressively getting a little bit worse over the years, which is very strange.
But I think with the kind of addition of AI intelligence into these, which I am kind of, you know, studying and learning about the forefront of that process, where a lot of these models are coming out, a lot of them are from privately held companies as well.
Even Google is getting involved. Google here that owns YouTube in their own weather model that’s AI powered. So there’s big things coming over the next five to 10 years and hopefully improvements. I think that AI learning involved in these models would have it to a point where even the five to seven day, maybe even 10 day forecasts are nearly perfect.
More equivalent to what you get one to two days out within about 10 years. So I think big developments are coming here for the future in weather modeling, which scares me, but also makes me excited about the future.
So let me know what you think about that. But let’s move past that. I want to move on to the future. I mean, I. as we’re looking at tomorrow on Wednesday, we see colder times overall for the Great Lakes of Ohio Valley as well as the mid – Atlantic and Northeast here.
Pretty seasonable across the deeper South. And then we have some snowfall happening out West. They’re in a little bit of a more average pattern with that jet stream moving straight through. Again, snowfall here for some of the Cascades, some of the Rockies and even some of the Plains here.
Let’s take a look at Thursday here on the 15th. And what we end up getting is still this kind of Northwest activity with that snowfall, even now extending through the full extent of the Cascade Mountains, the full extent of the Northern and Central Rockies, even heavier this time around as well.
And then we have a little bit of a snowstorm moving through here through the Great Lakes, some heavier snowfall. A little bit more brief with that snowfall, I would say, is the bigger theme here. But we are gonna see this eventually kind of begin to involve the Northeast and mid -Atlantic here, especially in New York State and New England.
So we’re gonna watch for that here. Let’s take a look at Friday and we’ll see this happen overnight Thursday into Friday. So there’s when it’s impacting the Northeast. Again, this is about 2 a .m. on Friday.
The low is located near the Adirondack mountains of New York, but we have plenty of cold air around and we end up with snowfall for Northern Pennsylvania, Northern New Jersey, and then the rest of New York and New England.
Still, the Northwest threw into the Northern Plains or seeing some snowfall here. We haven’t seen anything too crazy in the pattern until we reach about Friday afternoon. We’ll stop here and take a look at this, but activity kind of cuts off for the West and what we end up seeing is a little bit of a ridge developing in the West, jet stream diving southward for the Plains and kind of staying flat here for the Mid -Atlantic.
And this is a classic Southern slider kind of setup. We have this Southern stream sending moisture into this jet stream here that’s allowing it to move kind of with this Northern jet here. So what ends up happening is we’re looking at a snowfall threat mostly for these areas here in a pretty horizontal axis.
So again, a lot of this snowstorm, we were talking about the more vertical axis of it and we see a lot more of a horizontal one with this potential snowstorm where it should be pretty flat with the impacts directly West to East.
So as we go over the hours after this, keep in mind this is not expected to be a two major snowstorm. I would say mostly a two to four inch event, maybe four to six inch event here, but we see that right now the European model has this low developing near Eastern North Carolina, Eastern Virginia area.
And this ends up bringing snowfall to Eastern Kentucky, most of West Virginia and a lot of Virginia here. Keep in mind this is still a few days out, probably three or four days out. So this could trend Northward, this could trend Southward.
We’re still watching this very closely. And also it could have less moisture, more moisture. We wanna be aware of these potential changes, but overall the pattern is very supportive of a snow event because we have this positive P &A out West.
That’s huge. This creates this ridge. We have solid cold air. So the cold air is very, very, very good. is not a question. Really the biggest question is, okay, in this area we’re gonna have that cold air.
Is the storminess gonna extend northward into it or is it gonna move more flat and kind of be separate from that cold air? That’s the difference. That’s the only thing that can make or break this storm at this point.
So we are watching those details closely and we will continue to do so over the coming days. But because this is a more flat horizontal storm, we don’t see it really move up the coast only slightly and it kind of moves directly out the sea.
So we’re not really talking about much of a threat here for the northeast with this one. This would much more be a southeast mid -atlantic and kind of Ohio Valley system that we’re potentially watching for here.
Again, kind of Friday, Saturday timeframe and it’s over by Sunday. What we’re left over with by Sunday the 18th is extremely cold air here in the east. Even lakes are getting going here and we’re really seeing brutal arctic air and this is all due in part to this warm air mass out west, very dry.
Very warm out west and this is sending all the Arctic cold into the eastern half of the nation by time origin about the 18th time frame As we keep going and I’m very excited by the way to see what the GFS American model has for this potential southern slider storm We see more storminess take aim at the west and eventually we begin to develop Perhaps a little bit of a trough here In the west and then a kind of double double dipping trough here as we see more in the east more in the west here And then a little bit of a ridge in the central states It’s not unheard of definitely not favorable for snowfall in the east, but it doesn’t really hurt the cold air At least not immediately and then we’re left with this kind of ridge out west again Kind of more mild average pattern I would say the jet stream for the most part is moving flat across the country so you can expect seasonable conditions Fairly dry though by Friday the 23rd here again We will take a look at the extended range in just a little bit where we will take a look more at this temperature pattern That’s gonna be for the end of the video though the GFS model.
This is our most recent actually. It’s not let me update this real quickly Okay, 12z. So this is our most recent GFS model run We see this northeast snowstorm move through again, so we get a check mark there on agreement We have this on the European model and the GFS model here and again Also, we’re seeing this kind of northwest snowfall extending through the northern Rockies and even into the plains And then as we move towards Friday, which again is when we should see this storm really starting out We’re looking for this piece of energy here and this piece of energy to come together So we need this really close together, but we’re seeing it pretty far apart here on this GFS model compared to the European model Let’s go to the European model actually and take a look at early on Friday Look at how close together those pieces of energy are by time or taking a look at Friday evening You know, they’re not that far apart, but on the GFS model we have more distance again European model GFS model So you can see that northern piece of energy is dipping way further down here on this European model And it’s not dipping as far southward on the GFS model so this could certainly hinder that storm and what it ends up doing is it comes in much further to the north because it doesn’t get influenced by this southern piece of energy.
It’s also a bit weaker and we end up with actually a pretty classic mid -atlantic snow storm. Again, still pretty minor two to four inches, maybe four inches plus perhaps and then that one kind of innocently moves out.
What we’re left with as a result of this is still brutal cold air after it’s said and done. Again, the weekend is expected to be rather cold and we do have this moisture kind of just to the south of that jet stream.
I would say this spells potential here. We’re not seeing it verify here at all but it does have a lot of potential. This low is just a little bit further northward. We would see a lot more snowfall but we get very very light snowfall for North Carolina here on Sunday.
If this low was a little bit further to the north, we would see much more potential snowfall with this potential event. I know I just said potential like five times but that’s really what it is. I want to iterate that none of this is guaranteed to happen.
That’s always what I want to iterate by time of reaching the 24th, which is a little bit into the extended range We have a
little bit of a ridge here across the Southwest and this allows for a pretty deep diving trough once again The interesting thing here is this vertical climb here on the jet stream with a strong low pressure system along it This again spells a lot of potential for the eastern seaboard if we see a setup like that take place That eventually comes to an end relatively innocently.
We’re not seeing too much in the way potential snowfall events and then after this we’re taking a look at around the 29th And we see more cold air out west and more warmth in the east So we move into a milder pattern at some point after the 25th and colder out west So looking at that potential pattern change That seems to be the time frame to watch is going to be approximately that after 25th time frame perhaps Where we’ll be watching for maybe colder air to return out west and a little bit more milder spring like air in the east The cold can’t last forever.
We’ve had it for a little bit here. We’re expecting to have it for about 10 more days You know having a cool down that lasts longer than 15 days is is pretty rare And we can’t expect too much out of this So I’d say a realistic time frame is set some point after the 25th To see that pattern eventually change We could see after this major snowstorm is set and done We actually see a big reduction in the amount of precipitation in the southeast up the east coast We actually see more infusion of more moisture out west where we have these storms moving on shore once again Uh, definitely a couple of more minor storms moving across the north a couple of minor storms moving through the south But nothing too crazy here on this european model run total snowfall keep in mind that a lot of this is from this kind of Snowstorm it’s already set and done.
Uh, this is the 12z model run So it was still happening and still running about, you know, 9 10 a .m. This morning So this is a little bit outdated on that regard But what I’ll do here. Well, we’ll look out west first.
We do expect quite a bit bit but now what I want to do is I actually want to switch this to like the let’s do seven day snowfall Yeah, so that’s gonna go ahead and get rid of that Initial snowstorm that we’re kind of getting the tail end of here, but it’s already done in real life Obviously, we do get a bit of a minor snowstorm across the northeast and Great Lakes here That’s happening in just a couple days like I said and here’s that potential southern slider again We’re seeing more like two to four inches in here Perhaps through the kind of southern Midwest through the Ohio Valley and into the southern mid -atlantic I would say is where the bull’s -eye for that one is on this model right now But again, we’re still only looking at about two to four inches of snowfall, which I’m sure many of you would be very happy with I just don’t want to spin this and make it sound like it’s gonna be something crazy.
I do not expect that with this system at all Mostly a minor snowfall event in general But for these areas it can be pretty impactful actually the further south that is the more impactful small amounts of snowfall really really are The GFS models total snowfall we’re gonna have to do the same thing, but First, I mean out west look at these crazy snowfall totals throughout the Cascades, Sierra Nevada, and even the Rockies here.
So definitely snowfall is back on the way. But let’s switch this, and this model goes out further. So actually what we’ll do is the 10 day snowfall and we still are able to kind of get rid of this tail end of this one.
And again, tons out west still. We get quite a bit here in the upper Midwest and then the Northeast we still get actually a pretty more major snowstorm here across the Northeast, perhaps some potential for six to ten inches.
I think that’s maybe a little bit overdone. Again, this upcoming system is going to move into the Northeast and out in a hurry. It’s not going to stick around too long. So we’re maybe looking at about six hours of snowfall, maybe a bit more, but that reduces the potential a lot.
Obviously when you have snowstorms that last 12 to 24 hours, it doesn’t have to fall at a very heavy rate to start to accumulate quickly over time. So the speed of the storm is a big factor often times.
Now the precipitation or the temperature pattern better yet is very messy right now. Let’s move to where we can kind of figure out what’s going on. We do have some warmer air on the way for the East around the Thursday timeframe, but that’s very brief because look at this.
We have a major Arctic blast moving in for the weekend that’s going to start Friday. It’s going to be fully moved in by Saturday. It’ll still be there by Sunday. And look at this. I mean, we have tons and tons of warmth to work with out west.
So we get a classic positive P and A pattern. And this is why all this cold is being directed towards the East. Let’s see if we get this next one and it really doesn’t pan out that way. We see warmth return to the East.
Another cold blast around the 24th. And then again, after that 25th timeframe is when we expect the potential end of that cold pattern. And you can see it here as we get a negative P and A that stands for Pacific North American Oscillation, by the way.
All that means is, is it cold or is it warm out West? Negative being cold, positive being warm. And that dictates a lot more than you think. So we saw warmer temperatures out West for most of the day.
to this model run when we’re seeing cold in the east. So let’s take a look at this. So like right here, for instance, this is clearly a positive P and a warm out west. This directs all the cold at the east because it has to go somewhere.
It’s moving out of the west and then diving southward in the east. But the opposite is true. Once we’re looking at the end of this model run, we see cold out west and instantly almost instantly, you can see this encourages warmth in the east opposite of what we saw before.
And that’s classic with a negative P and a pattern. So after the 25th, as of now, I’m really eyeballing that 25th or 26th time frame for a big flip in the pattern where we’re going to switch from cold in the east and central states to perhaps very warm compared to more compared to normal and it might even feel like spring time there for a while.
So keep that in mind. Definitely something we’re going to be watching here on the channel daily. Speaking of daily, be sure to subscribe as we do upload weather videos just like this one every single day.
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