Last Monday we looked at the forecast possibility of up to 8 feet of snow on the mountains West of the lake and we got it. The top snowfall totals for Tuesday-Sunday were: Sugarbowl – 8’0″, Squaw – 8’1″, Boreal – 9’0″, Alpine – 9’1″, & Kirkwood – 9’1″. East side of the lake the mountains picked up 4-6 feet as they were shadowed out from a lot of the snow earlier in the week. This is on top of the 2-3 feet that fell the first week of the month easily making March the biggest month of the season with 12 days still to go.
There is another storm approaching the Pacific NW that will move in on Tuesday. Warmer air coming up ahead of the storm will override the cold air in place and some light snow showers could break out tonight into Tuesday not expecting more than a dusting of snow. The ridge off the coast will continue to build in toward CA through the middle of the week with temperatures warming back into the 40’s and 50’s by Wednesday.
Another storm will move into the Pacific NW on Thursday flattening the ridge but most of the precip will still stay to the North of Tahoe. We could see a few light snow showers on the mountains and some light rain/snow showers at lake level. Although the weather will stay unsettled we won’t see any accumulating snow through Friday as the big snows stay to the North. Here is the snowfall forecast through Friday.
Then the trough will dig down off the coast as the ridge builds in over the West. The ridge over the West will try to keep the trough from pushing inland but it looks like the next storm coming across the Pacific will help to start pushing it inland over the weekend. Some forecast models show the cold front pushing in Saturday and then the main low slowly spinning across CA through Monday, while others Sunday through Tuesday. The Southerly flow on the East side of the storm will keep most of the precip on the crest at first.
Models show anything from 6-9 inches in the Basin and up to a foot West of the lake along the crest over the 3 day period, to 1-2 feet in the basin and 2-3 feet along the crest. Here is the updated snowfall forecast from the GFS through next Tuesday which is one of the lower end model solutions.
The next upstream system that helps to push the first one inland may move in right on the heels of the first next Wednesday. Some forecast models show it becoming a cut-off low as well but coming inland by Thursday as the first storm has cleared the way and another storm behind it will help to push it inland. Another storm is right behind that and could push in by Saturday the 31st.
We will have to continue to watch the track of the systems next week to see how far South they end up coming and how much precip they can bring into Tahoe. Right now the chance is there that we could see 3 more storms before the end of the month to add to what has been a Miracle March at the end of what has been a dismal season until now. BA