The snow levels dropped all the way down to 6500 ft. overnight! It’s snowing hard over Donner Summit so there may be a little more snow than expected above 7000 ft. this morning. Already 2 inches on the ground at 6500 ft. in Tahoe Donner. Let’s hope the snow levels stay there today and the only trend is downward. The temperatures continue to steadily lower by the hour. Looking at the web cams around the resorts it is really dumping hard.
Here is the temperature trend at the base of Squaw and you can see the temeratures steadily falling. It is just now getting cold enough to turn over to snow at the base as of 7:30 a.m.
Also, a lot more forcing of the precip over the crest this morning than expected this early. Heavy band of precip has moved in and the heavy snow is making it all the way over to Heavenly and Mt. Rose now. The heavier precip should be with us now to stay with the heaviest band pushing in with the cold front tonight.
7-10 inches being reported up top of the resorts North and West of the lake in the past 24 hours. Most of that likely fell in the early morning hours after the snow levels dropped. Rain up to 8500 ft. yesterday packed down a lot of what fell earlier in the week so a nice base for the feet of fluffy snow coming this weekend. Resorts East of the lake reporting 1-4 inches in the past 24 hours.
We could see 6-12 inches today above 7000 ft. with up to 18 inches along the crest. Then another 12-18 inches tonight above 7000 ft. with up to 2 feet along the crest. Then heavy snow turning to moderate snow showers Saturday piling on another 4-8 inches above 7000 ft. with up to 12 inches along the crest. That gives you your 2-3 feet above 7000 ft. and 3-4 feet along the crest. Then light snow showers Satuday night through Sunday could pile on around 4-8 more inches.
Of note is that the European forecast model is showing a second strong wave moving in Saturday afternoon. The difference would be an extra foot or more but not buying it yet as it’s the only model showing it. Here is what the Euro shows for additional liquid equivelant through Sunday.
and here is what the GFS and other models are showing….about 2 inches less of liquid over the basin which keeps us at 2-3 more feet instead of 4-5. Only showing you this in case of the outside chance the Euro sees something other models are missing and the snowfall forecast gets blown by 1-2 more feet than expected.
With snow totals of at the summit of 2-4 feet already for resorts North and West of the lake we should have totals for the week by Monday of 5-8+ feet. At lake level it turns to snow tonight with 5-10 inches possible by morning and another 3-6 inches on Saturday. Throw on another 3-6 inches from the snow showers through Sunday and you have storm totals of 1-2 feet.
This should put us over 50% of the average snowfall for the season. Still not very good but better than the 30% we were at at the end of February. BA