Finally a storm train for Tahoe setting up this week as a trough off the West coast gets ready to stream in moisture off the Pacific. With the continuous moisture stream the snow on the mountains and snow-rain-snow at lake level will be almost continuous through next Sunday. There will basically be a reinforcing wave of moisture coming onshore about every 24 hours.
The snow looks to move in during the early morning hours Tuesday up along the crest and later in the day for the rest of the Tahoe Basin. Monday night and Tuesday we could see 6-12 inches on the mountains with up to 15 inches along the crest. Here is the 48 hours snowfall forecast.
Tuesday night and Wednesday we could see another 12-18 inches with up to 2 feet on the crest. Wednesday night and Thursday another 6-12 inches with up to 15 inches along the crest. At lake level we could see 6-12+ inches Mon night-Tue night before the change to rain as snow levels rise up to 7000 ft. on Wednesday.
Snow levels could rise as high as 7500 ft. Thursday before falling Thursday night into Friday, so the snowfall forecast is for elevations that stay all snow. We could see another 6+ inches Thursday night and by Friday morning we could have totals of 2-3 feet above 7,500 ft. in the basin, and 3-4 feet above 7500 ft. along the crest.
Then Friday-Saturday the cold trough pushes onshore bring a cold front through. That will drop the snow levels and raise the snow:water ratios for powdery snow that will pile up fast. We could see another 2-3 feet over the weekend at all elevations with up to 4 feet on the crest. Totals by next Sunday could be 4-6 feet above 7000 ft. in the basin and up to 6-8 feet along the crest.
Here is what the total precipitaion forecast now looks like through next Sunday. Off the charts on the Western slope of the Sierra to the West of Tahoe.
The trough next weekend is so cold that the GFS snowfall forecast model has snow on the mountains all the way down past LA into Mexico. I’ll believe that when I see it but it will be a cold weekend and you will need the snorkel.
Looking at the long-range snow showers could linger into next Monday and then more storms could hit next week as the trough looks like it will stick around the West Coast. It’s about time…BA