We’ll take our first look at the winter of 2024-2025. While it’s early, we’ll check in on Direct Weather who discusses previous winters and what we can predict so far, focusing on La Niña and model guidance, with a grain of salt. This will be the first of many discussions about the upcoming winter.
Let’s review the winters of 2021-2022 and 2022-2023. In 2021-2022, the southeast experienced warmth, while the west, upper Midwest, and northern plains were cold. The Ohio Valley and northeast were near normal. In 2022-2023, a negative Pacific North American Oscillation (PNA) led to cold in the west and warmth in the east, causing struggles for snowfall in the east.
For the upcoming winter, we’re transitioning from a strong El Niño to a weaker La Niña, which historically means mixed conditions. Typically, neutral ENSO conditions lead to more favorable cold and snow in the east. However, we’ve seen strong El Niño and La Niña patterns dominate in recent years.
Model guidance suggests a warmer summer and early fall. By December, cooler temperatures may develop in the upper Midwest and northeast. January might bring a thaw, with February returning to cooler conditions, especially in the northeast. These predictions, however, should be taken cautiously as models can change.
Historical analogs from similar transitions (2010-2011, 2005-2006, and 1988-1989) show a pattern of warm summers and falls followed by colder Decembers and mixed Januarys and Februarys. These historical patterns provide a reliable foundation compared to early model predictions.
We will continue updating you on the upcoming winter, with biweekly updates as we move closer to winter forecasts.