Federal researchers are drawing attention to a potentially record-setting El Niño developing in the Pacific Ocean, with implications for winter weather, mountain snowpack and outdoor recreation across the United States.
The U.S. Forest Service published a new research fact sheet on October 28, describing the ongoing El Niño as potentially record-setting and outlining how unusually warm Pacific Ocean temperatures can alter precipitation and temperature patterns throughout the country. Another Forest Service research publication examined how the changing climate pattern could affect forests, water supplies, wildfire conditions and recreation opportunities on public lands.
The publications arrive as ski resorts across North America prepare for a winter that federal forecasters expect to be heavily influenced by one of the strongest El Niño events in decades.
NOAA Sees High Probability of Historic El Niño
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s October 8 forecast, there is an 83% chance that the ongoing El Niño will reach historic strength during the October through December period, exceeding the strength of previous events in NOAA’s records dating to 1950.
The agency also estimated a 70% chance of reaching that threshold during November through January. El Niño conditions were already well established in October, with exceptionally warm ocean temperatures and atmospheric changes reinforcing the developing pattern.
The historic-strength probabilities represent forecasts, not confirmation that a new record has been established. El Niño occurs when unusually warm water in the equatorial Pacific influences atmospheric circulation, changing the position of the jet stream and affecting storm tracks across North America.
The stronger the event, the greater the potential influence on seasonal weather patterns, although even an exceptionally strong El Niño cannot guarantee a particular outcome for individual regions.
What It Could Mean for Ski Resorts
NOAA’s official winter outlook, released October 15, favors warmer-than-average temperatures across much of the northern United States, including the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, Great Lakes and Northeast.
That could present challenges for ski resorts in Washington, Idaho and Montana, particularly at lower elevations where snowmaking operations and natural snow accumulation depend on sustained cold temperatures. Portions of the northern Rockies also face increased odds of below-average precipitation.
The outlook looks different farther south. Above-average precipitation is favored across much of the southern United States, including Southern California, Arizona and New Mexico.
If temperatures cooperate, those wetter conditions could benefit higher-elevation ski destinations in the Southwest and portions of the southern Rockies. However, additional precipitation does not necessarily mean additional snowfall, especially when storms bring warmer air into mountain regions.
California’s Sierra Nevada occupies a particularly interesting position. A more southerly storm track can bring powerful Pacific storms into the state during El Niño winters, but the timing, temperatures and elevation of those storms will determine how much precipitation actually falls as snow.
The Northeast presents another complicated outlook. NOAA favors above-average temperatures across much of the region while also indicating increased chances of wetter-than-normal conditions along the East Coast. That combination leaves open the possibility of significant winter storms, but also periods of rain and thawing.
Implications Beyond the Ski Slopes
The Forest Service’s latest research emphasizes that El Niño’s influence extends well beyond winter recreation. Changes in precipitation and temperature can affect mountain watersheds, forest ecosystems and the availability of water that communities depend on throughout the year.
Mountain snowpack is especially important because it stores winter precipitation and gradually releases water into streams and reservoirs during spring and summer. Changes in snowfall, snow levels and the timing of melting can have consequences long after ski season ends.
The Forest Service also highlights how El Niño related weather changes can influence wildfire conditions and other disturbances affecting national forests and rangelands.
For ski resorts operating on national forest land, the developing weather pattern is another reason to monitor snowpack, precipitation and temperature trends throughout the coming winter.
NOAA has identified the broad regional patterns expected during December through February.
The new Forest Service publications add a longer-term perspective on how those changes could affect the public lands where many Americans ski, snowboard and recreate.
With El Niño expected to remain strong into 2027, federal researchers and weather forecasters will continue monitoring the evolving Pacific conditions. For skiers and snowboarders, the most important distinction remains that a potentially historic climate event can shift the odds of a snowy winter without determining how much snow any individual mountain will receive.
