Guest Author: PowderChasers.com
High-Level Summary:
Unsettled conditions ramp up for New England later this week into the weekend with light or moderate snow totals on Thursday and again early this weekend. A stronger low moves up the East Coast by the MLK holiday. The West stays high and dry until perhaps the middle to end of next week, when signals are showing a buckle in the ridge. Alaska turns on the warm water faucet with up to 20 inches at upper elevations.
Who Has the Best Snowpack?
The models are confident that if you live in the West, your best bet is to stick to resorts that already have a decent base (Northern Rockies, Higher elevations in Utah, Canada, PNW, Sierra, and a few outliers in Colorado). I can’t remember a season where, by mid-January, we are still warm and dry in the core of the Rockies. New England will see better chances of wintry conditions (Periods of light to moderate snow). Alaska offers deep, dense powder up mid and upper elevations.
Below: Current snowpack (SWE) as of January 10th in the West. The northern Rockies are the clear winners, extending into the northern PNW (Canada is also firing), followed by the Sierra, which is just below normal aside from the southern regions near Mammoth (Above normal). Oregon has not fared well with higher snow totals further north. The central and southern Rockies, extending into the Four Corners, continue to disappoint. Utah was spared from the last storm; however, elevations below 8,000 feet in Utah are still well below normal.
SPONSOR ALERT WITH GREAT POWDER NEAR PARK CITY- UINTA’S
Park City Powder Cats got 17 inches of blower pow later last week, and snowfall will continue up at their cat skiing tenure up in the Uintas. This Zone in the Uintas;s has very good snow totals and quality right now. Mention Powderchasers when booking for a free swag bag of merchandise from us.
Forecast-Short Term
Below: If you are looking for powder this week, northern New England ramps up on this map from Thursday morning to last chair (New powder for 1st chairs and storm ski 4-9 inches up north in NY, VT). Central New Hampshire (I-93, N. Conway) also has some hope of light ot moderate snow Thursday. Canada resorts will see higher amounts north of the Maine border. More snow below moves in later this week at a lighter clip.
Below: New England continues to build slowly (Light persistent totals) from Saturday to Sunday. On Sunday night to Monday (MLK), you can see a coastal low pushing north (end of this map), bringing snow to Cape Cod and extending light to moderate snow favoring eastern resorts of CT, MA, NH. Maybe chase to Wachusett or Gunstock?
Alyeska Ski Resort will be deep from Thursday to Friday with 2K snow levels. Upper and areas near mid mountain will be full on surf, and deep by Friday morning.
Below: Total snowfall for Alyeska by Friday morning (Mid to upper mountain). Rain will be falling at the base.
Below: Map: Thursday (1/15) to Monday (1/19). The West is high and dry as low-pressure systems push east and north of the ridge into the Midwest East Coast. You can see storm #1 in New England move over New England Thursday with a stronger low pushing further east, closer to the coast by the end of this loop (MLK).
Long Range Models Next Week
Below: Longer range models from Monday (1/19) to Monday (1/26). New England might dry out early next week (Start of the loop), with the West showing a hint of low pressure possible by later next week (1//23-1/25). The signal for low pressure in the west seems to favor the PNW and northern Rockies. There is a weak low also noted moving into California during the same time period and quickly weakening and driving south into the Baja. These charts will change with low confidence on solutions being 7-10 days out.
Below: European Ensembles showing total snowfall in the west from later next week into the weekend, with the map ending on Monday, January 26. This is too far out to forecast with accuracy (Later next week is the highlighted timing).
Below: GFS ensembles showing a similar solution to the European ensemble above. At least there is some agreement.
