There’s something about snow on the ground that elevates the magic of Christmas day, whether it’s actively snowing or it’s snowed in the past week. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Center‘s (NOAA) Climate.gov classifies a White Christmas as at least 1 inch of snow being on the ground on Christmas day, and this graphic displays the historic probability of a White Christmas throughout the lower 48 U.S. states.
The map looks at the latest U.S. Climate Normals from NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, based on data from 1991-2020. Those station data allow experts to interpolate values for all locations in the lower 48, including temperature changes with altitude and other physical observations. The darkest gray spots show where the probability of a White Christmas is less than 10%, while the white areas show where the probabilities are greater than 90%.
The Midwest, most of Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming, the Rocky Mountains, and Northern New England all seem to have the highest odds. Burlington, Vermont, has a 62% chance of a White Christmas, while Duluth, Minnesota, has a 97% chance. Missoula, Montana, has a 98% chance, and Aspen, Colorado, has a 99% chance. Unsurprisingly, there’s nowhere with a 100% chance of a White Christmas in the lower 48, but those near the Kuparuk weather station in Alaska are guaranteed to have at least 1 inch of snow on the ground for Christmas.
The lowest odds exist, unsurprisingly, in the far south, with places like San Antonio, Texas, Santa Barbara, California, Key West, Florida, and Hawaii, all having a 0% chance of a White Christmas. If you want to see the exact odds of your area having a White Christmas, you can head here to find the interactive map.
