Direct Weather, a popular YouTube-based forecasting channel run by passionate meteorologists and weather enthusiasts, delivers daily, no-nonsense updates on storms, temperature swings, and long-range patterns across North America. In their latest video, titled “The Polar Vortex Might Be About To Split In Half… Arctic Plunge For the U.S.?”, they highlight a disruptive shift in the polar vortex that could unleash intense Arctic blasts starting late November and ramping up into December.
This forecast is especially critical for skiers because it signals the potential for early-season snowpack buildup in key mountain ranges. After a sporadic start to November, the incoming pattern promises heavy Sierra Nevada and Cascade snowfall, lake-effect dumps in the Great Lakes region, and sustained cold to lock in base depths. Ski resorts in California, the Pacific Northwest, Rockies, and even higher elevations in the Appalachians could see their snowiest conditions yet this season—perfect for opening more terrain and extending the season if the cold persists.
Key Forecast Highlights (European Model Guidance)
- Current Conditions (as of Nov 13): Active showers across the West (Washington, Oregon, California, Nevada, Utah, Arizona) with light-to-moderate rain; heavier bursts incoming near San Francisco northward. Wintry mix in eastern Canada, Northeast U.S., and Great Lakes with lake-effect snow enhancing totals in areas like Watertown NY, Vermont, New Hampshire, Montreal, and Ottawa.
- Recent Snowfall Recap (Past 5 Days): Dustings to 2+ inches widespread from prior Arctic blast; 3–6 inches (up to 10+ in spots) in Smoky/Appalachian highs; 10+ inches in isolated Great Lakes lake-effect bands. Early November intensity spoiled us—setting the stage for more.
- Temperature Anomalies: Just-ended cooldown brought 1–10°F below normal (blues), 10–15°F (greens), and 15–25°F below (purplish) in the Southeast. West stayed warmer, funneling cold eastward.
- Short-Term Pattern (Nov 14–20): Up-and-down temps with quick-moving storms. Softer ridge West/trough East early; rebuilding ridge by Nov 15. Drier cold front Nov 16; moderate trough/ridge Nov 17. Strong Nor’easter offshore New England (985 mb low) by Sunday—more lake-effect snow. Heavy Sierra/Cascade snow piling up for ski resorts. Atmospheric river shoving moisture into central U.S. by Nov 19–20.
- Mid-Term Storminess (Nov 21–23): Major low onshore Pacific Northwest; warm/cold front dynamic sparks thunderstorms/severe weather South Central/Deep South. Simultaneous Rocky Mountain snow. Building blocks for colder Eastern pattern post-Nov 20.
- Thanksgiving Week Cool-Down (Nov 24–27): Locked-in cold central/eastern U.S. with positive PNA ridge West steering Arctic air southward. Pipeline from Arctic via western Canada. Intense around Thanksgiving (Nov 27)—colder than recent blasts.
- Precipitation & Snow Totals (10-Day): Heavier West Coast; strip from Texas through Midwest, Ohio Valley, Northeast (healthy totals). Drier South Central/Southeast pockets. Eastern snow underwhelming beyond lake-effect/northern showers; Mountain West explodes with season’s snowiest look so far—Sierra, Cascades, Rockies stacking feet.
- Temperature Pattern Evolution: Lingering Northeast cold (negative NAO holding it in); West cooler overall but warmer Southwest. Post-Nov 23: Arctic pipeline dominates East; up-and-down gives way to sustained cold.
- Polar Vortex Disruption (The Big Why): Stratospheric warming (10 mb level) flips Arctic Oscillation (AO) negative ~Nov 18–20. Warmer Arctic expels cold air southward (oil-and-water effect). Multiple Arctic blasts visible at 850 mb: Eastern U.S., Pacific, Russia, Africa. Fewer, slower-moving lobes = more intense, prolonged cooldowns. Surface impacts lag 1–2 weeks—major early/mid-December cold for central/eastern U.S. (echoes last year’s brutal late Nov/Dec).
Conclusion: Gear Up for a Legendary Early Winter
Direct Weather’s analysis paints a picture of volatility turning viciously cold, with the polar vortex split acting as the catalyst for widespread Arctic intrusions. For skiers, this is gold: West Coast mountains are primed for massive dumps to kick off the season strong, while Eastern lake-effect and high-elevation spots could deliver bonus powder. Monitor official NWS/NHC guidance for life-threatening events, but if models hold, late November into December could rival last year’s freezer—stock the wax, check chains, and hit the slopes early. Stay tuned to Direct Weather for daily updates!