Despite the federal government shutdown continuing into its 16th day, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center continues to release updated forecasts for the month ahead. Issued on October 16th, 2025, the most recent forecasts focus on the December 2025 through February 2026 (Dec-Jan-Feb 2025-26) period. Here’s a detailed breakdown based on current climate patterns, including La Niña influences and long-term trends.
Temperature Outlook
The Dec-Jan-Feb 2025-26 temperature outlook favors above-normal seasonal mean temperatures across much of the contiguous United States, except for the northern tier, where Equal Chances (EC) of any category are forecast due to high variability. The Southwest and southern High Plains show the highest odds for warmer-than-normal conditions, supported by statistical, hybrid (CBaM), and dynamical model guidance, along with La Niña impacts and long-term trends.
In Alaska, above-normal temperatures are favored in northern and western areas, driven by later sea ice formation and positive temperature trends. The Alaska Panhandle, however, may see a slight tilt toward below-normal temperatures later in the season due to potential La Niña effects.
Precipitation Outlook
For Dec-Jan-Feb 2025-26, the precipitation outlook indicates an elevated likelihood of above-normal seasonal amounts in the Pacific Northwest, northern California, northern Rockies, Plains, and western Great Lakes. Drier-than-normal conditions are most likely across the Southwest, southern Texas, and the Southeast. In Alaska, western areas are favored for above-normal precipitation, while the Alaska Panhandle leans toward below-normal.
Conclusion
NOAA’s October 16th, 2025, forecast offers a clear picture of expected weather patterns for the Dec-Jan-Feb 2025-26 period. With La Niña and other climate factors influencing the season, the contiguous United States can expect warmer conditions in the south and drier weather in the southeast, while the north may see wetter trends. Alaskans should prepare for warmer and wetter conditions in the west, with cooler, drier trends in the southeast.
