Fall 2025 Weather Outlook / Prediction
As summer peaks in August 2025, the shift to fall approaches. Get ready for cooler temperatures and changing landscapes. Direct Weather’s latest video, uploaded on June 17, 2025, provides an early glimpse into the Fall 2025 Weather Forecast for the United States. It covers September through November. This comprehensive forecast dives into temperature, precipitation, and snowfall predictions. These insights offer valuable information for planning your autumn outdoor activities. Below, we break down the key points from the weather forecast. This includes regional expectations and implications for seasonal weather. The insights are directly from Direct Weather’s analysis.
Temperature Outlook: A Tale of Warm West and Cool East
The fall of 2025 is shaping up to be a season of contrasts across the U.S. According to Direct Weather, a positive PNA (Pacific-North American) pattern will dominate. This leads to warmer-than-average temperatures in the western U.S. while cooler conditions are expected in the central and eastern regions. As the Fall 2025 forecast suggests, these variations will create unique weather challenges.
- Western U.S.: Warmer Than Normal
From western Canada down through the western U.S. and into parts of Mexico, expect above-average temperatures. The forecast highlights the West Coast, particularly the Pacific Northwest and California, as the warmest areas. “The west here is above normal from western Canada down through western Mexico,” says Direct Weather. They emphasize the influence of the persistent positive PNA pattern. This pattern kept the region warm since late 2024. - Central and Eastern U.S.: Cooler Than Normal
The North Central states, Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic are forecasted to experience below-average temperatures. “I do expect a lot of the north central states, upper Midwest, Great Lakes, Ohio Valley… to be mostly below average temperatures,” the forecast notes. The strongest cooling is expected in the Midwest and Great Lakes. Cooler conditions will likely intensify later in the season, particularly in November, as per the Fall 2025 Weather projections. - Southeast and Gulf States: Mild and Variable
The Southeast and Gulf Coast are likely to see milder temperatures with occasional warmth. This is due to a “southeast ridge” that could bring periods of above-average temperatures. This is especially likely early in the fall. Cooler air moves in later.
To visualize the temperature trends, here’s a chart summarizing the forecast for Fall 2025 weather.
Precipitation Outlook: Dry West, Wet Midwest, and Active Tropics
Precipitation patterns will also vary significantly across the country. These are influenced by the same positive PNA pattern and a potential neutral ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation), which leans slightly toward La Niña. With this Fall 2025 Weather Forecast in mind, expect diverse precipitation scenarios.
- Western U.S.: Below-Average Precipitation
The forecast predicts drier-than-normal conditions across the West, particularly in the Southwest. “I do expect below average precipitation to prevail for most of the west for this upcoming fall,” Direct Weather explains. They cite high-pressure systems that block storm activity. The Southwest, including Arizona and New Mexico, is expected to be the driest. Meanwhile, the Northwest may see slightly less confidence in the dry forecast. - Midwest and Great Lakes: Above-Average Precipitation
The Plains, Midwest, and Great Lakes are set for a wetter-than-average fall. “There is one up here for the plains, the Midwest into the Great Lakes, where both the models all agree on this,” says Direct Weather. Historical analogs, particularly the fall of 2014, support this prediction. They suggest increased storminess in these regions. This is indicative of the Fall 2025 Weather Forecast. - Southeast and Gulf Coast: Tropical Activity Boosts Rainfall
The Southeast and Gulf Coast are expected to see above-average precipitation. This is largely driven by tropical activity. Direct Weather notes, “I do expect that a lot of the Gulf and southeast area to be pretty favorable for tropical activity.” While the overall Atlantic hurricane season is forecasted to have an average number of storms, their proximity to the U.S. could lead to increased impacts. This results in higher rainfall in these areas. It is foreseen in the Fall 2025 weather outlook.
For the latest updates, subscribe to Direct Weather’s YouTube channel and check out their vlog channel for behind-the-scenes content. You can also follow them on Instagram or join their Discord community for real-time weather discussions.
Snowfall and Outdoor Implications
For skiers and snowboarders, the snowfall forecast is critical. Unfortunately, the outlook for fall snow in the Rockies and Cascades is not promising. Direct Weather predicts “below average snowfall for this fall in the Cascades and Rockies,” unless a stronger La Niña pattern emerges closer to the season. This could delay the start of the ski season in these regions. Therefore, keep an eye on updates as September approaches.
In contrast, the Northeast, particularly the Appalachian Mountain Range, may see some early snowfall, especially in late October and November. “Cold and even some mountainous snowfall is likely to happen late October into November,” the forecast states. This offers hope for early-season powder in higher-elevation resorts like those in Vermont and New Hampshire.
What This Means for Outdoor Enthusiasts
- Western U.S.: Warm and dry conditions suggest excellent opportunities for hiking, mountain biking, and climbing in the early fall. However, be prepared for potential wildfire risks due to low precipitation. Ski resorts in the Rockies and Cascades may face delayed openings.
- Midwest and Great Lakes: Wet weather could impact fall foliage viewing and outdoor events. So, pack rain gear for hiking or camping. The cooler temperatures may bring crisp, autumnal vibes perfect for cozy outdoor activities.
- Southeast and Gulf Coast: Tropical activity could disrupt coastal plans. Hence, stay updated with the National Hurricane Center (NHC) for real-time advisories. Inland areas may see increased rainfall, ideal for kayaking or exploring wetlands.
- Northeast: Cooler temperatures and potential early snow in higher elevations make this region a prime spot for late-fall skiing or snowboarding. Plan for variable weather, with cold snaps becoming more frequent in November.
Why This Forecast Matters
Direct Weather’s forecast is based on a blend of historical analogs, particularly the 2014-2015 season, and current model guidance. The strong positive PNA pattern and potential La Niña influence make this a robust early prediction. However, updates are expected closer to September. As Direct Weather notes, “This is the first fall forecast. I do expect to update this probably as we move closer to September.” For outdoor enthusiasts, this early insight allows for better planning, whether you’re chasing powder, hiking fall trails, or preparing for tropical storms.
