UNITED STATES – NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center in College Park, Maryland, predicts a continuation of ESNO-neutral through the next several months, with a 70% chance of La Niña emerging somewhere between August-October. Additionally, through early winter (November-January), La Niña has a 79% chance of persisting. So what is La Niña, and what does it mean for skiers and snowboarders in North America?
According to NOAA’s Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, La Niña is a climate pattern that comes out with unusually cold ocean temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific. The jet stream, as a result, is pushed north. In the Southeast United States, this means warmer weather. In the Northwest, this means cooler weather.
This also means a wet period for the Pacific Northwest and a dry period for the southeast. In other words, it tends to mean good ski years for those in the west. In both 2021 and 2022, we saw La Niña years, while 2017-2020 were all neutral, with little influence from either of the climate patterns. If you can remember how bad 2016 was for skiers and snowboarders, that’s because it was a strong El Niño year.
“The forecast team is also favoring a delayed development of La Niña this month, but is anticipating the transition to occur earlier (August-October). This is, in part, supported by the continuation of below-average subsurface ocean temperatures and near-term forecasts suggesting a resurgence of easterly wind anomalies in July. In summary, ENSO-neutral is expected to continue for the next several months, with La Niña favored to emerge during August-October (70% chance) and persist into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2024-25 (79% chance during November-January)” – NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center