SUMMARY
The southern Cascades were deep this morning with 8-12 inches over many areas for 1st chairs. Crystal was blower pow just above boot top (12), and lesser amounts fell to the north. I missed the dump that mysteriously hit Bridger Bowl last night (12 plus inches of blower). The next 3 days will feature significant snowfall (20-35 inches) for the Southern San Juan mountains in Colorado and most of north/central Arizona. The cactus are going to be swimming in blower pow by Friday. Snorkel Alerts are up for many areas in the forecast.
BELOW: SNOQUALMIE MOUNTAIN- Slot Couloir- WA- Skier: James Menning. Photo: Peter Avolio. This looks epic!
FORECAST
Looking at models, I remain very confident that Arizona (Flagstaff, Tucson- Mount Lemmon, Arizona Snowbowl) will all be in the snorkel zones by late Thursday. Heavy snow will be falling late tonight through Thursday.
Expect 15-30 inches for storm skiing Thursday and a repeat for Friday. The heaviest pow may be all day Thursday (Free refills) that continue moderate through Friday.
Some snow is even possible in AZ on Saturday. Snorkel time!
Below: AZ through Monday with most of this snow falling Thursday-Friday.
That system drags over southern Utah and the San Juan Mountains of Colorado primarily Thursday to Saturday. Storm ski Thursday in Colorado with moderate snow at Wolf Creek, Purgatory, and Silverton that intensifies late AM and early PM. Expect 6-11 inches in most areas before 2 PM Thursday. Telluride will see lower amounts.
Snowfall intensifies Thursday night in the San Juan Mountains of Colorado. Winds show some shifting from SW to W or NW by early Friday. Models show the deepness continuing in the southern San Juan’s with a deeper Friday than Thursday (Another 10-18 inches for the southern San Juans). The northern San Juans stand the best shot of better snowfall during this period. Telluride who we never were optimistic for on the last storm may score on this storm. They will see less than the southern neighbors. Winds from the SW are not favorable for Telluride, however, the moisture is so intense in the San Juan mountains that it will likely overcome the deficits. If the winds shift to the N or NW early enough on Friday it may be nuking pow for your 1st chairs. My best guess for Telluride is 7-15 inches for Friday morning. Additional snow will fall during the day into Saturday. The southern San Juans including Wolf Creek, Silverton, and Purgatory will be in the 3-foot range by Saturday morning. Double snorkel may be required!
Below: Total snowfall for Colorado through Friday afternoon. Amounts will be higher due to cold temps and better snow ratios. You can almost add 50% to these totals or more!
Further north in Colorado some sneak up deepness might occur (Wildcard) Friday PM or Saturday. Ther models show decent snow for Aspen and Crested Butte (CB- 7-12- Aspen 5-10). What’s interesting is that the moisture from the south is likely to push north and impact southern regions of Summit and Clear Creek County (South of I-70) both Friday and Saturday. Friday afternoon may offer some moderate to deep powder followed by another powder day on Saturday. Expect 4-7 inches Friday and perhaps a repeat for Saturday.
Elsewhere in the west, northern Utah simply gets teased with light leftovers Thursday/Friday. New Mexico will grab snowfall on the northernmost borders (Heaviest west of Taos). Taos might score late Friday to Saturday as a wildcard.
The Pacific Northwest will be addressed in the extended forecast.
EXTENDED
The Cascades ramp up again Friday night with a repeat of the Wednesday storm. Moisture will be streaming in with NW winds favoring the central and southern Cascades of Washington Friday PM. While the last storm outperformed at Crystal the next one may favor Stevens or Alpental. Expect 8-12 inches for 1st chairs on Saturday at many resorts in WA. Higher amounts will fall in the Oregon Cascades including Bachelor. Snow will decrease Saturday morning in Washington (Heavier in Oregon) only to start up again on Sunday (light to moderate refresh in WA). Ride Saturday and Sunday!
The long term outlook looks very moist for Oregon early next week. A steady flow of moisture will enter the Oregon coast late this week and early next. That moisture takes a straight line over Idaho (Sun Valley, Brundage, Central panhandle) and the Tetons. Montana is also likely to score! Expect a long duration event early next week for the northern Rockies. Depending on how far south that system moves, Utah may see some decent amounts favoring the northern Wasatch range (Beaver near Logan and Powder Mountain may be favored). Northern Colorado is a wildcard.
Enjoy the powder everyone.