NOAA: Expect An Indian Summer Followed By Below-Average Winter

As frost starts to appear on morning lawns across the country, people are beginning to look towards fall and more importantly– the ski season.

Related: 2017 Winter Weather Forecast | Long Range Prediction From NOAA

So with that in mind, NOAA recently updated its long range forecasts, which include an Indian Summer (YES!!!) and a below-average winter for much of the United States (NO!!!).

“Currently, forecasters think there’s a slightly better than 50% chance of La Niña developing in August–October and then a 55-60% chance during the winter.” – NOAA

That said, all is not lost. A couple of areas are forecasted to benefit from an above average winter while the rest of the country suffers (Full Disclaimer: These are only predictions based on models of past meteorological mechanisms).

Winners, Losers, and Tossups: As of now, the winners include Washington state, the midwest, and areas of northern Idaho and Montana. The tossups include Wyoming, Oregon, and the Northeast– all of which have equal chances for an average winter. The obvious losers include the Sierra, the Southwest, and central/southern Colorado.

Forecast Highlights

• Hotter than average fall across the majority of the United States
• Above average precipitation in the northwest during the autumn months.
• Equal chances for an average winter in the Northeast
• Cold and snowy winter for the Pacific Northwest
• Bone-dry winter for southern California, Arizona, and New Mexico

NOAA 2016 Fall Forecast

Temperature Probability 

Precipitation Probability

NOAA  2016/2017 Winter Outlook

Temperature Probability

Precipitation Probability

Find out more here: NOAA.gov

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