Winter Weather Prediction / Forecast 2013- 2014
NOAA has just released their long range forecast for the winter of 2013 -2014. At this point they don’t seem to have a clear picture of what weather will unfold during the upcoming winter with many parts of the US having equal chance of being above normal, normal or below normal winters. Below are maps of both the temperature probability and the precipitation probability for the winter of 2013 – 2014.
November, December, January 2013 – 2014
November, December, January Precipitation Probability
January,February, March – 2014
January, February, March Temperature Probability
December, January & February Winter Precipitation Forecast
Fore more on all this all means here is Powderchaser Steve.
Data from the National Climate Prediction Center at this point is teasing us to believe that December to January stands an equal chance of being below normal or above normal for snowfall for the Western States. Latest model guidance suggests neither strong El Nino or LA Nina and a good bet for near normal snowfall or what weather climatologists say “Neutral pattern.” My thoughts are leaning towards a higher chance of DEEP in the Sierra and Southern Rockies especially by mid January early February. The history shows that many areas like the Wasatch and Northern Rockies can do well with both La Nina and El Nino. Neutral may favor the Central Rockes slightly?
The East Coast and Mid Atlantic may see near normal snowfall this winter with slightly warmer temperatures.
Temperatures in the West will stay near to above normal with the exception of the Northwest where colder temps will kick in by mid winter. The Rockies and northern Alaska might see above normal temperatures early this winter.
As a powderchaser I have learned never to rely on early data! As we get closer to Fall reliability increases. This info is an early heads up for those weather gurus that insist on looking at it. The next update will be issued in Mid July.