The weather pattern that shaped this past winter is on its way out. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center dropped its latest ENSO Diagnostics Discussion this week, and it’s a pretty significant one. La Niña is almost done, and El Niño could be making a comeback before the end of the year.
According to NOAA, La Niña continued into February 2026, with the Niño-3.4 index sitting at -0.5°C. That’s still technically La Niña territory, but barely. Forecasters now expect a full transition to ENSO-neutral conditions within the next month, with neutral conditions favored through May-July 2026 at a 55% probability.
The Ocean Is Already Warming From Below
While the surface of the Pacific still shows the fingerprints of La Niña, the subsurface is telling a completely different story. NOAA reports that the equatorial subsurface temperature index has been climbing, with above-average temperatures strengthening across the Pacific Ocean at depth. That kind of subsurface warmth is often the first signal that a major pattern shift is coming.
Forecasters also expect trade winds to weaken, which would allow that below-surface heat to rise and spread. Those two factors together are what’s driving the increasing confidence in an El Niño development later this year.
El Niño Is Likely by Summer
NOAA’s North American Multi-Model Ensemble is now pointing toward El Niño emerging in the June-August 2026 window, with a 62% probability. If it forms, forecasters expect it to stick around through at least the end of 2026.
There’s a 1-in-3 chance this El Niño could reach “strong” status during October-December 2026, defined as a Niño-3.4 index of +1.5°C or higher. That’s not a certainty, and NOAA is careful to note that model forecasts this far out carry considerable uncertainty, especially during the spring.
What It Means Going Forward
El Niño years tend to bring warmer and drier conditions to the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies while delivering wetter weather across California and the southern United States. A strong El Niño can make those patterns even more pronounced, which has real implications for the 2026-27 ski season.
NOAA’s next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for April 9, 2026. That update will come at a critical moment, likely providing much clearer guidance on whether El Niño development is still on track and how strong it might get.
