January-February-March 2026 Seasonal Temperature & Precipitation Outlook: NOAA forecasts promising trends for skiers and snowboarders in the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies.
Today, September 22nd, marks the first official day of fall, but all of our attention is turned toward the upcoming winter. While it’s impossible to know exactly what the weather will look like it several months, it is possible to look at climate trends to determine the likelihood of above or below average temperatures and precipitation in specific regions.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association‘s Climate Prediction Center provides monthly outlooks up to a year and a half ahead of time. The most recent update for January, February, and March of 2026, released on September 18th, is looking promising for skiers in the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies. However skiers and snowboarders in the Southwest and in the Northeast may be a bit disappointed by the forecast.
Seasonal Temperature Outlook (January – March 2026):
NOAA’s latest Seasonal Temperature Outlook, released on September 18th, 2025, provides a probabilistic look at temperature trends across the U.S. for the upcoming January-February-March 2026 period. The forecast highlights a split pattern with cooler conditions in the north, warmer conditions in the south and east, and neutral odds in the central regions. Here’s the regional breakdown:
- Pacific Northwest (Washington, Oregon, western Idaho, western Montana): Leaning below normal (33-60% probability). Expect a cooler winter with potential for increased frost or snow.
- Northern Rockies and Plains (Eastern Montana, North Dakota, Minnesota, northern Wisconsin): Leaning to likely below normal (40-70% probability). Colder temperatures are favored, raising the likelihood of frozen precipitation.
- Central U.S. (Wyoming, Colorado, Nebraska, South Dakota, Kansas, Iowa, Missouri, Illinois, Arkansas, eastern Oklahoma): Equal chances. No strong signal for above- or below-normal temperatures.
- Southwest (California, Nevada, Arizona, Utah, New Mexico, western Texas): Likely above normal (60-80% probability). Warmer conditions are expected, potentially worsening drought and reducing snowpack.
- South Central (Southern Texas, Louisiana): Leaning above normal (33-50% probability). Milder winter temperatures are anticipated.
- Southeast (Florida, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, Tennessee, Kentucky, the Carolinas, Virginia): Likely above normal (60-80% probability). Above-average warmth could lead to earlier spring-like conditions.
- Northeast (Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts, New York, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Maryland, Delaware): Likely above normal (70-90% probability). Significantly warmer winters are forecast, potentially reducing cold snaps.
- Alaska: Mixed outlook. Equal chances in the interior, leaning below normal (33-40% probability) in the south and west. Cooler conditions may dominate populated southern areas.
Seasonal Precipitation Outlook (January-March 2026):
NOAA’s latest Seasonal Precipitation Outlook, released on September 18, 2025, offers a probabilistic forecast for precipitation trends across the U.S. for the January-February-March 2026 period. The outlook shows a mixed pattern with above-normal precipitation in parts of the North and Southeast, below-normal precipitation in the Southwest and Southeast Florida, and neutral odds in much of the central U.S. Here’s the regional breakdown:
- Pacific Northwest (Western Washington, Oregon, western Idaho, western Montana): Leaning above normal (33-50% probability). Wetter conditions are favored, potentially boosting snowpack.
- Northern Rockies and Plains (Eastern Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, northern Wyoming): Leaning to likely above normal (40-70% probability). Increased precipitation, likely as snow, is expected.
- Central U.S. (Nevada, Utah, Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa, Missouri, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Texas): Equal chances. No strong signal for above- or below-normal precipitation.
- Southwest (California, Arizona, New Mexico): Likely below normal (60-80% probability). Drier conditions are forecast, heightening drought risks.
- South Central (Louisiana, southern Texas): Leaning below normal (33-50% probability). Below-average rainfall is anticipated.
- Southeast (Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, Tennessee, the Carolinas, Virginia): Leaning above normal (33-50% probability). Wetter winter conditions are possible.
- Southeast Florida: Likely below normal (60-70% probability). Significantly drier weather is expected.
- Northeast (Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts, New York, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Maryland, Delaware): Leaning above normal (33-50% probability). Above-average precipitation may occur.
- Alaska: Equal chances across most areas. No clear tilt toward wetter or drier conditions.
What This Means For Skiers & Snowboarders
The NOAA Seasonal Temperature and Precipitation Outlook for January-March 2026 offers mixed news for U.S. skiers and snowboarders. Resorts and ski areas in the Pacific Northwest, and Northern Rockies could see cooler, wetter conditions with likely above-normal snow. However, resorts in the warmer, drier Southwest may face reduced snowpack, challenging ski conditions. The Northeast might get wetter but warmer weather, potentially leading to variable snow quality.
