2025 – 2026 First Snowfall Forecast / Prediction: First Snowfall Outlook Across the U.S. This year’s first snowfall forecast provides insights into when you can expect to see snow across the United States.
As the leaves start to turn and cooler air begins to settle in, skiers and snowboarders across the U.S. are eager to know when the first flakes might dust the peaks and plains.
Based on insights from Direct Weather, this first snowfall timing forecast for the 2025-2026 season, released on September 17th, 2025, breaks down average expectations by region while factoring in seasonal temperature outlooks. Whether you’re in the Rockies or the Appalachians, understanding these timelines can help you prepare for that magical moment when winter arrives.
Understanding Average First Snowfall Timing Across the U.S.
Direct Weather’s analysis illustrates when different areas typically see their inaugural snowfall of the season, based on historical averages. These timelines account for elevation and geography, with high-mountain spots often getting an early start and lower elevations waiting longer. Keep in mind that weather patterns can introduce surprises. Some years bring flakes ahead of schedule, while others delay them.
Here’s a breakdown of the average first snowfall periods by region:
- September (Limited High Elevations): Snow is rare this early, confined to extreme peaks in mountain ranges across Montana, Wyoming, and Colorado. Only a tiny fraction of the population lives in these zones, but exceptions happen, like occasional early dustings in the Sierra Nevada or Utah’s high country.
- Early October: Expanding to more of Montana, Wyoming, Colorado, and now parts of Utah, South Dakota, and Idaho’s mountains. This still affects under 1% of residents, but it’s a sign that autumn chill is turning serious.
- Late October: Broader coverage includes the Cascade Mountains in Washington and Oregon, plus spots in Nevada, Idaho, Utah, New Mexico, North Dakota, and Nebraska. Northern Montana, Michigan’s Upper Peninsula, the Adirondacks, Green Mountains, White Mountains, and northern New Hampshire and Maine also join in. Variations are common here, with occasional early systems pushing into the northern Plains.
- Early November: Now the action ramps up, encompassing nearly all Western mountain ranges, much of the northern Plains, Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast. Flakes are flying in earnest for a significant swath of the country.
- Late November: Lower and mid-elevations in the West start seeing snow, along with the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles, Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa, southern Minnesota and Wisconsin, northern Illinois and Indiana, northern Ohio, southeastern Michigan, Appalachian surroundings, much of New England, New York, and northeast Pennsylvania.
- Early December: By this point, most Western areas have been dusted, and the net widens to the central and southern Plains (Missouri, central Illinois and Indiana, southern Ohio), plus West Virginia, Virginia, North Carolina, Maryland, most of Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey, and southern/coastal New England (Connecticut, Rhode Island, southeastern Massachusetts).
- Late December: A slim addition out West, but bigger gains in Arizona, New Mexico, Texas, Oklahoma, southern Kansas and Missouri, northern Arkansas, southern Illinois and Indiana, Kentucky, Tennessee, North Carolina mountains, central Virginia, and the Mid-Atlantic core (D.C., Baltimore, Philadelphia, Delaware, southern New Jersey).
- January (Whole Month): The deepest cold often hits mid-winter, so this covers the full month. Northern reaches of Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee, all of North Carolina, southeastern Virginia, and northern South Carolina typically see their first flakes here. If it hasn’t snowed by mid-January in these spots, it might not at all.
- No Average Snow: The Deep South and coastal Southeast, including Florida, rarely see measurable snow annually. While rare events happen (perhaps every few years to decades), these areas don’t factor into regular first-snowfall averages.
Temperature Forecast Impact on First Snowfall Timing
Timing your first snowfall isn’t just about averages, temperature plays a starring role. Direct Weather’s fall outlook shows above-normal temps in much of the West (already playing out), which could push back those early flakes in higher elevations. Meanwhile, cooler-than-average conditions in the central and eastern states suggest potential for earlier arrivals there.
For winter proper, the pattern holds: below-average temperatures across the East could accelerate first snow in the Plains, Midwest, and Northeast, possibly bringing surprises to borderline no-snow zones. In the West, warmer conditions might delay things slightly, emphasizing the need for timely storms to deliver the chill.
Why This Forecast Matters
These predictions hinge on the dance between cold air masses and precipitation tracks. Colder falls and winters in the East boost the odds of early snow by favoring frozen precipitation over rain. Out West, where it’s already frigid at elevation, the focus shifts to storm frequency. Fewer systems could mean later starts despite the averages.
For powder chasers, this means scouting high-elevation spots early in the season, while Midwest and Eastern skiers might gear up sooner than usual. Road crews and travelers should note these timelines to avoid slip-ups on fresh powder.
Final Thoughts
The 2025-2026 first snowfall season shapes up as a tale of two coasts: potentially earlier dustings in the East thanks to chilly temps, while the West might linger in autumn a bit longer. From September’s high-altitude teases to January’s late bloomers in the South, most of the U.S. will see flakes by New Year’s. Whether you’re dreaming of opening day or just curious about the white stuff, this forecast from Direct Weather sets the stage. Now it’s up to Mother Nature to deliver.
