Winter 2025-2026 Forecast: A Cold and Snowy Season Ahead? As we dive into the details of the winter weather forecast, many are anticipating what the coming months may bring.
Direct Weather’s latest winter weather forecast indicates conditions of cold temperatures and even snow, giving the outlook a snowy potential.
The winter weather forecast predicts cold temperatures and heavy snowfall for the upcoming season.
As we sail through summer 2025, Direct Weather’s latest YouTube video dives into early predictions for the upcoming winter of 2025-2026. While it may seem premature to discuss winter weather, the video emphasizes the importance of tracking the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to gauge broad trends in predicting winter weather.
ENSO Outlook: Neutral with a La Niña Lean
The video highlights the ENSO cycle as a critical indicator for winter conditions. According to Direct Weather, “it’s never too early to be paying attention to the El Niño or La Niña. It really is a strong indicator of the conditions to expect.” This forecast of weather, looking towards the winter season, leans heavily toward a neutral ENSO, with a 55% probability according to models. Though the presenter estimates a higher 75% chance. La Niña follows with a 35% likelihood, while El Niño is less probable at 17% or lower. The Climate Prediction Center suggests an even lower 11% chance for El Niño.
For those hoping for a snowy and cold winter weather forecast in the eastern U.S., a neutral ENSO is described as the “sweet spot.” The presenter notes, “If you were hoping for cold and snowy conditions in the east, you really want it to be as close to that center point as possible.” A neutral or La Niña phase typically favors cooler temperatures and increased snowfall potential in the east. Unlike El Niño, which is “probably what you don’t want in the east.”
Regional Weather Predictions
Using the CANSiPS model and other guidance, the video provides a month-by-month breakdown. This forecast covers temperature and precipitation trends for December 2025, January 2026, and February 2026, focusing on regional variations within the winter weather forecast.
Northeast, Great Lakes, and North Central U.S.
Skiers and snowboarders in the Northeast (think Vermont’s Killington, New York’s Whiteface, or New Hampshire’s Loon Mountain), Great Lakes, and North Central regions have reason to be excited. The latest winter forecast predicts colder-than-average temperatures, especially in January 2026, with an “arctic blast type pattern” and possible polar vortex influence. The presenter notes, “This is a strong indicator of cold in the central and eastern states. We can see a lot of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast is cooler as well for January.”
Southeast, South Central, and Southwest
Skiers and snowboarders in southern resorts, such as North Carolina’s Beech Mountain or West Virginia’s Snowshoe, may face challenges. The winter weather forecast calls for warmer-than-average temperatures in the Southeast, South Central, and Southwest, with a “classic La Niña look.” Precipitation is expected to be drier along the Gulf and Southeast, reducing snowfall potential. The presenter warns, “The southeast ridge does look ever so present, which… can disrupt a lot of your snowfall opportunities.” For southern ski areas, this could mean reliance on snowmaking and fewer natural snow days, so plan trips carefully, ideally targeting early-season windows in December.
Western U.S.
The West Coast, home to iconic ski destinations like California’s Mammoth Mountain or Colorado’s Aspen, is forecasted to be warmer and drier overall, with a “warm column” along the western seaboard. The video notes, “If we see this warmer column in the west, I think that the cold will dig a lot deeper than that in the east.” This suggests limited snowfall for many Western resorts, particularly in February, when the cold moderates. Skiers in the Rockies or Sierra Nevada might see inconsistent snowpack, so check resort snow reports closer to the season. However, the warm West could enhance cold air spillover to the East, indirectly benefiting Eastern resorts.
Historical Context for Skiers
The video highlights a historical trend that’s music to skiers’ ears: “A lot of times these cold and snowy winters come in duos… it’s kind of odd for a cold winter and then a warm winter to follow it.” Following last year’s cold winter, this increases the odds of another snowy season, particularly for Eastern resorts. The presenter compares this winter to 2014-2015, which featured “a lot of these Nor’easters” in February, ideal for late-season powder in the Northeast.
Key Takeaways for Skiers and Snowboarders
- Northeast and Great Lakes: Prime destinations with cold temperatures and above-average snowfall potential, especially in December and January. Look for Nor’easters to deliver powder to resorts like Stowe or Gore Mountain.
- Northern Plains and Midwest: Expect active storm tracks and cool conditions, boosting snow chances for resorts like Lutsen or Crystal Mountain.
- Southeast: Warmer and drier conditions may limit natural snow, so focus on resorts with strong snowmaking capabilities.
- West: Warmer and drier trends could mean less reliable snowpack, so monitor conditions at resorts like Vail or Tahoe closely.
- ENSO Impact: A likely neutral ENSO (55-75% chance) or La Niña (20-49%) favors cold, snowy conditions in the East, described as the “sweet spot” for snow enthusiasts.
While models will evolve, as the presenter cautions, “This will update a hundred times before we’re even arriving to winter,” the current outlook suggests a strong season for Eastern skiers and snowboarders. Stay tuned to Direct Weather for updates, and always check with the National Weather Service for critical weather alerts. Where are you planning to hit the slopes this winter? Let us know in the comments!
