The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center issued its April 2026 monthly outlook, offering probabilistic forecasts for temperature and precipitation across the country.
April Temperature Outlook
The temperature forecast paints a very warm picture across a large portion of the country, with the most intense signal centered squarely over the interior West. Utah, Colorado, Nevada, and the surrounding states show the highest probabilities of above-normal temperatures, with some areas in that core zone reaching the 60-70% likelihood range. The warmth spreads out from that bullseye across the entire West Coast, the Southwest, the Plains, the South, and much of the East, all leaning above normal in the 40-50% probability range.
The Upper Midwest and northernmost Plains fall into the equal chances zone, meaning those regions have no strong lean toward warmer or cooler than normal conditions this April. Florida stands out on the eastern side of the map with its own above-normal signal, showing 50-60% odds of a warmer than average month. Alaska is split, with the western portion leaning above normal while most of the interior falls into equal chances territory.
April Precipitation Outlook
The precipitation picture for April tells a very different story depending on where you live. The biggest and most confident signal on the map is a broad below-normal precipitation area centered over California, Nevada, and the surrounding Intermountain West, with the core of that dry signal reaching into the 60-70% probability range over Nevada. That dryness fans outward at lower probabilities across the broader West, while parts of the Rockies sit in equal chances territory just to the east.
On the wetter side of the ledger, a corridor running from the Gulf Coast through the Midwest and into the Great Lakes shows above-normal precipitation chances. That green signal stretches from roughly Louisiana and Mississippi northward through Illinois, Indiana, and into Michigan, with some areas showing 40-50% odds of above-normal rainfall. Florida bucks its temperature trend, showing below-normal precipitation odds at 33-40%. The Northeast and much of the central U.S. fall into equal chances for precipitation.
Key Takeaways
NOAA’s April outlook points to a warmer than normal month across the overwhelming majority of the lower 48, with the highest confidence of heat centered over the Rockies and Intermountain West. That same region also faces the strongest odds of a drier than normal April, with California carrying some of the highest below-normal precipitation probabilities on the map. For the Midwest, warmer temperatures and wetter conditions look to be the story. The eastern half of the country is mostly a coin flip on precipitation, while still leaning toward above-normal warmth.
